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Index Update: The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.29% to a record high of 25,971.93 on Friday, contributing to a robust 2.4% weekly advance. This upward momentum was primarily driven by strong performances from key constituents in the financial and technology sectors, which effectively counter balanced declines among commodity producers. An improved risk appetite amid easing US-China trade tensions underpinned the broader market sentiment.
Macro Update: The Canadian government has announced a key tax cut as part of its plan to address the rising cost of living. Effective July 1, 2025, the lowest personal income tax rate will drop from 15% to 14%, saving two-income families up to CAD 840 annually by 2026. The measure is expected to provide CAD 27 bn in tax relief over five years, primarily benefiting Canadians earning under CAD 114,750. The change aims to boost household spending power and support economic resilience amid ongoing challenges. In March 2025, foreign stock investment in Canada registered a reduced outflow of CAD 4,230 mn, a significant improvement from the CAD 10,450 mn outflow recorded in February 2025. Over the period from 1988 to 2025, the average foreign stock investment has been CAD 5,268.02 mn.
Top Movers and Losers: The biggest gainers of the session on the S&P/TSX Composite were MEG Energy Corp (TSX: MEG), which rose 18.73%. Tilray Inc (TSX: TLRY) added 9.68% and Athabasca Oil Corp (TSX: ATH) was up 8.96%. Biggest losers included South Bow Corp (TSX: SOBO), which fell 4.15%. Ero Copper Corp (TSX: ERO) declined 3.83% and Capstone Mining Corp (TSX: CS) down 3.37%.
Our Stance: The index remains in a bullish trend, trading comfortably above its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 71.35, signaling robust market strength with potential room for further upside before entering overbought territory. Currently, the index is testing a key support level near 25,600. Holding above this level is essential to maintain the upward trajectory.
Commodity Update: The dollar remained range-bound Tuesday after a week of declines, pressured by the Fed’s cautious economic outlook and looming U.S. fiscal deficit concerns. Gold slipped 0.74% to $3,209.65, silver fell 0.48% to $32.35, and copper eased 0.37% to $9,487.05. Brent crude edged up 0.10% to $65.66 amid potential breakdowns in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, dampening hopes for increased Iranian oil export.
Technical Update: The S&P/TSX Composite Index advanced 74.45 points on Friday, closing at 25,971.93, a 0.29% gain. The positive momentum was backed by strong trading volumes, reflecting continued investor confidence. Leading the gains was the healthcare sector, which climbed 2.78%, indicating increasing optimism in the segment. The index remains in a bullish trend, trading comfortably above its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 71.35, signaling robust market strength with potential room for further upside before entering overbought territory. Currently, the index is testing a key support level near 25,600. Holding above this level is essential to maintain the upward trajectory. A decisive move below could trigger a pullback, with next support levels at 25,300 and 25,100 on the weekly chart.
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