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Index Update: The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.3% to close at 26,616 mark on Thursday, renewing its record high as investors reacted to softer US economic data and rising geopolitical risks.
Macro Update: Signs of a cooling US labor market, along with weaker-than-expected CPI and PPI data, increased market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September, with 50 basis points of easing now priced in for 2025.
On the geopolitical front, tensions intensified after the US ordered embassy staff from Baghdad following Iranian threats against American bases and President Trump announced forthcoming unilateral tariffs to key partners, driving safe-haven flows into bullion.
Top Movers: Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals, Barrick Gold and Franco-Nevada—rose over 1% on higher gold prices, while energy names pared early losses amid a modest pullback in oil.
Our Stance: From a technical perspective, the index remains comfortably above its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing a bullish short-term outlook. The index is testing key support around 26,300 holding above this level is critical to preserving the current bullish trend. A breakdown could trigger a pullback toward the next support zones near 25,900 and 25,700.
Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar surged along with safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc after Israel reportedly launched strikes on Iran, according to U.S. officials. Explosions were also reported near Tehran. Gold jumped 1.68% to $3,460.15, silver rose 0.91%, while copper slipped 0.24%. Brent crude soared 7.63% to $74.65, reaching multi-month highs as fears of supply disruptions intensified amid escalating Middle East tensions.
Technical Update: On Thursday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 91.59 points, or 0.35%, to close at 26,615.75, reflecting continued investor confidence. The advance was supported by strong trading activity, with the healthcare sector leading the gains, up 1.73%. Technically, the index remains well above its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing a bullish short-term outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 72.88, signaling strong momentum while nearing overbought territory. The index is testing key support around 26,300 holding above this level is critical to preserving the current bullish trend. A breakdown could trigger a pullback toward the next support zones near 25,900 and 25,700. Sustained movement above these levels will be essential to maintain upward momentum in the sessions ahead.
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