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Index Update: The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.7% to close at 26,752 on Thursday, reaching a new record high.
Macro Update: The core PCE price index in the US, which excludes volatile and energy prices and is Federal Reserve's chosen gauge of underlying inflation in the US economy, went up 0.2% from the previous month in May of 2025. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said President Trump plans to finalize about 10 trade deals in the coming weeks before the July 9 deadline for tariff reinstatements. While countries involved remain unnamed, a deal with India appears near completion. The administration may extend deadlines to continue negotiations if needed.
Top Movers: he biggest gainers were NovaGold Resources Inc (TSX:NG), which rose 10.78%, HudBay Minerals Inc (TSX:HBM) added 8.32% and Ero Copper Corp (TSX:ERO) was up 8.10%.
Our Stance: The index tests a key support level of around 26,500. Maintaining a position above this threshold is critical to sustaining the current uptrend. A breakdown below this level could trigger a pullback toward 26,100 and 25,900, the next notable support zones. For the bullish momentum to continue, the index must sustain movement above 26,500, with a close watch on sector leadership and volume strength in the coming sessions.
Commodity Update: The dollar drifted near 3.5-year lows against the euro and pound on Friday, pressured by expectations of deeper U.S. rate cuts and uncertainty over trade deals ahead of July tariffs. Gold slipped 1.00% to $3,314.70, silver fell 0.55% to $36.45, and copper eased 0.17% to $9,897.10. Brent crude rose 0.50% to $68.07, supported by firm U.S. demand despite fading Middle East supply concerns.
Technical Update: The S&P/TSX Composite Index climbed 185.63 points, or 0.70%, to close at 26,751.95 on Thursday, signalling continued investor confidence. The advance was underpinned by robust trading activity, particularly in the basic materials sector, which led to a 1.84% gain. From a technical standpoint, the index remains comfortably above its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing a bullish short-term outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 67.45, indicating strong momentum, though approaching overbought territory. The index is testing a key support level of around 26,500. Maintaining a position above this threshold is critical to sustaining the current uptrend. A breakdown below this level could trigger a pullback toward 26,100 and 25,900, the next notable support zones. For the bullish momentum to continue, the index must sustain movement above 26,500, with a close watch on sector leadership and volume strength in the coming sessions.
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