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Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd
Index Update: The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index climbed off its worst levels going into the close but still ended the day down 35.35 points or 0.1 percent at 25,534.49.
Macro Update: The traders looked ahead to the release of the U.S. Labor Department's closely watched monthly employment report on Friday. The report, which is expected to show employment climbed by 170,000 jobs in January after jumping by 256,000 jobs in December, could impact the outlook for interest rates.
Top Movers: Oil-linked equities led the decline, with Canadian Natural, Suncor, and Cenovus falling between 0.8% and 2.3%, including Suncor despite surpassing market expectations for fourth-quarter profit, benefiting from higher oil production and strong refined product sales. Additionally, e-commerce mega cap Shopify tumbled 2.5%, weighing heavily on the index.
Our Stance: the index’s position above the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggests that the broader short-term trend remains bullish, indicating that despite the pullback, the overall market structure is still positive. The 25,200 level, acting as immediate support, will be a key point of interest for traders. If the index holds above this level, there could be a chance for a rebound, maintaining the bullish outlook. However, if the index falls below this level, the chances of further declines would rise, with the 25,000 and 24,600 levels emerging as the next significant support zones.
Commodity Update: The Japanese yen surged to a nine-week high as traders bet on potential interest rate hikes in Japan this year. Meanwhile, major currencies, including the U.S. dollar, remained steady ahead of the release of U.S. monthly payroll data. After a week of market volatility driven by U.S. tariff threats, the focus shifted to the jobs report, with investors also monitoring geopolitical developments and President Trump's policy moves. In commodities, gold rose 0.47% to $2,890.30, silver climbed 0.62% to $32.93, and copper gained 1.10% to $9,389.20. Brent oil futures stayed flat at $74.27 amid ongoing supply glut concerns.
Technical Update: The S&P/TSX Composite Index's modest 0.14% drop to 25,534.49, largely driven by the technology sector's 1.79% decline, reflects the ongoing volatility in the market. This decline could indeed weigh on investor sentiment, particularly in the short term. However, the index’s position above the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggests that the broader short-term trend remains bullish, indicating that despite the pullback, the overall market structure is still positive. The 25,200 level, acting as immediate support, will be a key point of interest for traders. If the index holds above this level, there could be a chance for a rebound, maintaining the bullish outlook. However, if the index falls below this level, the chances of further declines would rise, with the 25,000 and 24,600 levels emerging as the next significant support zones. How the index behaves around these levels will give traders important clues about whether this pullback is a temporary dip or the onset of a larger market correction.
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