Canada Market Round-Up

The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index (TSX: ^TSX) started the last week on a positive note but maintained a strong bearish momentum for the entire week. The S&P/TSX composite index dropped by 515.91 points (2.48%) to 20274.82 for the week ending June 10, 2022. On Monday, the index closed at 19742.56, down by 532.26 points or ~2.62%.  Healthcare, Basic Materials, Real Estate, Technology, Energy, Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Utilities, and Industrials were the laggards on Monday. As per the data published by Statistics Canada the employment rose by 40,000 (+0.2%) in May 2022 and the unemployment rate edged down 0.1 percentage in the same period. The weekly chart indicates that the index prices are sustaining below the horizontal trendline support. Moreover, prices are trading below the 21- period & 50-period SMA, indicating negative momentum for the index. The immediate resistance for the index is around 20000, while the immediate support exists at 19000. On the weekly time frame, RSI is reading at ~36.16 levels.

On the macro front, the upcoming major economic events that may impact the Canadian market sentiment include Manufacturing Sales MM, House Starts, Annualized, and Wholesale Trade MM.

Global Markets Wrap-Up 

For the week ending June 10, 2022, S&P 500 closed at 3900.86, down by ~5.05%. The Nasdaq composite was also down by ~5.60% and settled at 11340.02, and Russell 2000 ended the week at 1800.28, reflecting a decrease of ~4.40%. According to the weekly data published by the U.S. Department of Labor, the seasonally adjusted initial US initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 229,000 for the week ending June 04, 2022, against the initial claims at 202,000 in the prior week.  

Taking into the US market's performance over the last week, following the major global macros and data front, based on the technical analysis of the S&P/TSX Composite Index, the two TSX listed stocks fit the maximum criteria on the technical framework. The recommendations are based on the generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Saputo Inc. (TSX: SAP) and Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. (TSX: INE) for the next 2-4 weeks.

Saputo Inc.

Saputo Inc. (TSX: SAP) is engaged in the manufacturing and production of dairy and cheese products and operates across Canada, the U.S., Argentina, the United Kingdom, and Australia. The company ranks among the top cheese producers across the U.S. and Canada and derives the majority of the revenue from these Geographies.

Price Action Analysis (on the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, SAP stock prices are sustaining above the downward sloping trendline and continuously taking support of the trendline. The recent upside movement in the stock is backed by increasing volumes, further supporting a positive bias. The next resistance level is plotted around CAD 30.60, and the stock may test that level in the short term (2-4 weeks).

Technical Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-Period) is showing the reading of ~41.55, recovering from the lower levels. . Further, the weekly volumes also seem supportive of the upside movement. However, the stock is trading below 21-period & 50-period SMA, which may act as a resistance level.

General Recommendation:

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical analysis, we can conclude that Saputo Inc. is technically well-placed on the chart. Therefore, we recommend a 'Buy’ rating on the stock. Investment decisions should be made depending on the investor's appetite for upside potential, risks, and previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macroeconomic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. Below is the summary of our recommendation.

Innergex Renewable Energy Inc.  

Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. (TSX: INE) is a leading renewable power producer. Innergex operates a large portfolio of hydro, solar, and wind energy facilities in Canada, the United States, Chile, and France.

Price Action Analysis (on the weekly chart)

On the weekly chart, INE stock prices are trading above the falling trendline and taking support of the trendline. In addition, prices are also trading above the horizontal trendline support level. The next resistance level is placed around CAD 20.20, and the stock may test that level in the short term (2-4 weeks).

Technical Indicators Analysis (On the weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-Period) is showing a reading of ~45.34 levels.  Moreover, the weekly volumes also seem supportive of the upside movement. However, the stock is trading below 21-period & 50-period SMA, which may act as a resistance level.

General Recommendation:

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical analysis, Innergex Renewable Energy Inc. seems to be technically well-placed on the chart. Therefore, we recommend a 'Speculative Buy' rating on the stock. Investment decisions should be made depending on the investor's appetite for upside potential, risks, and previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macroeconomic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. Below is the summary of our recommendation.

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include updates on employment, inflation, GDP, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the S&P/TSX Composite Index and listed stocks' prices.

Investment Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.60:1.00); however, returns are generated within 2-4 weeks' time frame. This may be looked at by Investors with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within a short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors that could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks, etc. 

Note: How to Read the Charts?

The Green color line reflects the 21-period moving average, while the Red color line indicates the 50-period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black color line in the chart's lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period), which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status, while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue color bars in the chart's lower segment show the volume of the stock. The volume is the number of shares that changed hands during a given day. Stocks with high volumes are more liquid than stocks with lesser volume, and we consider stocks with greater than or equal to 200,000 volumes as more liquid. Liquidity in stocks helps in easier and faster execution of the order.

The Orange color lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: - 

Support: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and the uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavorable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. We suggest ~60% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

A trailing stop-loss is a modification of stop-loss in case of favourable movement in the price to protect the gains. We suggest Investors to Trail the Stop-Loss as per the aforementioned levels if the stock price achieves more than 50% of the Target 1. Investors should consider exiting from the position as per the Trailing Stop-Loss level if the price starts moving downwards after achieving more than 50% of the Target 1.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is June 13, 2022. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Abbreviations

CMP: Current Market Price

SMA: Simple Moving Average

CAD: Canadian Dollar

RSI: Relative Strength Index 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by investors. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by investors before any stock evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the stocks; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se. Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

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Disclaimer

The advice given by Kalkine Canada Advisory Services Inc. and provided on this website is general information only and it does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any particular person. You should therefore consider whether the advice is appropriate to your investment objectives, financial situation and needs before acting upon it. You should seek advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice) as necessary before acting on any advice. Not all investments are appropriate for all people. The website www.kalkine.ca is published by Kalkine Canada Advisory Services Inc. The link to our Terms & Conditions has been provided please go through them. On the date of publishing this report (mentioned on the website), employees and/or associates of Kalkine do not hold positions in any of the stocks covered on the website. These stocks can change any time and readers of the reports should not consider these stocks as advice or recommendations later.