Canada Market Round-Up

The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index (TSX: ^TSX) started the last week on a positive note and managed to end on a bullish note. The S&P/TSX composite index advanced by 710 points (3.74%) to 19692.92 for the week ending July 29, 2022. Basic Materials, Healthcare, Energy, Industrials, Financials, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclicals and Utilities were the leading sectors, while Consumer Non- Cyclicals was the laggard on Friday. As per the data published by Statistics Canada, Canadian real gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged in May. The weekly chart indicates that the index prices are trading above the horizontal trendline support zone. However, prices are sustaining below the 21- period & 50-period SMA, which may act as a resistance level for the index. The immediate resistance for the index is around 20410, while the immediate support exists at 18099. On the weekly time frame, RSI is reading at ~45.44 levels.

On the macro front, the upcoming major economic events that may impact the Canadian market sentiment include S&P Global Mfg PMI SA, Trade Balance C$ and Employment Change.

Global Markets Wrap-Up 

For the week ending July 29, 2022, S&P 500 closed at 4130.29, up by ~4.26%. The Nasdaq composite was also up by ~4.70% and settled at 12390.69, and Russell 2000 ended the week at 1885.23, reflecting an increase of ~4.34%. According to the weekly data published by the U.S. Department of Labor, the seasonally adjusted initial US initial jobless claims decreased by 5,000 to 256,000 for the week ending July 23, 2022, against the initial claims at 261,000 in the prior week.

Taking into the US market's performance over the last week, following the major global macros and data front, based on the technical analysis of the S&P/TSX Composite Index, the two TSX listed stocks fit the maximum criteria on the technical framework. The recommendations are based on the generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Canfor Corporation (TSX: CFP) and Ero Copper Corp. (TSX: ERO) for the next 2-4 weeks.

Canfor Corporation

Canfor Corporation (TSX: CFP) is a leading Canada based integrated forest products company, which produces softwood lumber. Canfor has a majority stake in Canfor Pulp Products Inc., producer of Softwood Kraft Pulp and a premium kraft paper.

Price Action Analysis (on the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, CFP stock price witnessed a breakout of the falling trendline at CAD 25.50 level on July 19, 2022. In addition, prices are also trading above the horizontal trendline support level, which is now acting as a support zone.  The next resistance level is plotted around CAD 30.90, and the stock may test that level in the short term (2-4 weeks).

Technical Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-Period) is showing a reading of ~55.26 levels, indicating positive momentum. Moreover, the weekly volumes also seem supportive of the upside movement. Further, the stock is trading above the 21-period & 50- period SMA, which may act as a support level.

General Recommendation:

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical analysis, Canfor Corporation. is looking technically well-placed on the chart, and a ‘Speculative Buy’ recommendation has been given on the stock. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Below is the summary of our recommendation.

Ero Copper Corp. 

Ero Copper Corp. (TSX: ERO) is a base metals mining company. It is focused on the production and sale of copper from the Vale do Curaca Property in Brazil, with gold and silver produced and sold as by-products from the same.

Price Action Analysis (on the weekly chart)

On the weekly chart, ERO stock prices are trading in a falling channel pattern and sustaining above the lower band of the pattern. The recent upside movement in the stock is backed by increasing volumes, further supporting a positive bias.The next resistance level is placed around CAD 14.40, and the stock may test that level in the short term (2-4 weeks).

Technical Indicators Analysis (On the weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-Period) is showing a reading of ~39.25 levels, recovering from the lower levels. Further, the volume in the stock is showing an upward trend, which indicates higher participation from the individuals. However, the stock is trading below 21-period & 50- period SMA, which may act as a resistance level.

General Recommendation:

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical analysis, Ero Copper Corp. is looking technically well-placed on the chart, and a ‘Speculative Buy’ recommendation has been given on the stock. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Below is the summary of our recommendation.

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include updates on employment, inflation, GDP, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the S&P/TSX Composite Index and listed stocks' prices.

Related Risks: This report may be looked at from high-risk perspective and recommendations are provided are for a short duration. Recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Individuals can consider exiting from the stock if the Target Price or Stop loss mentioned as per the technical analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 2: How to Read the Charts?

The Green color line reflects the 21-period moving average, while the Red color line indicates the 50-period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black color line in the chart's lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period), which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status, while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue color bars in the chart's lower segment show the volume of the stock. The volume is the number of shares that changed hands during a given day. Stocks with high volumes are more liquid than stocks with lesser volume. Liquidity in stocks helps in easier and faster execution of the order.

The Orange color lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level.  This report is based on ~60% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

A trailing stop-loss is a modification of stop-loss in case of favourable movement in the price to protect the gains.  Individuals can Trail the Stop-Loss as per the aforementioned levels if the stock price achieves more than 50% of the Target 1. individuals should consider exiting from the position as per the Trailing Stop-Loss level if the price starts moving downwards after achieving more than 50% of the Target 1.

The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is July 29, 2022. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Abbreviations

CMP: Current Market Price

SMA: Simple Moving Average

CAD: Canadian Dollar

RSI: Relative Strength Index 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any stock evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the stocks; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se. Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Disclaimer 

The advice given by Kalkine Canada Advisory Services Inc. and provided on this website is general information only and it does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any particular person. You should therefore consider whether the advice is appropriate to your investment objectives, financial situation and needs before acting upon it. You should seek advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice) as necessary before acting on any advice. Not all investments are appropriate for all people. The website www.kalkine.ca is published by Kalkine Canada Advisory Services Inc. The link to our Terms & Conditions has been provided please go through them. On the date of publishing this report (mentioned on the website), employees and/or associates of Kalkine do not hold positions in any of the stocks covered on the website. These stocks can change any time and readers of the reports should not consider these stocks as advice or recommendations later.