Canada Market Round-Up

The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index (TSX: ^TSX) started last week on a positive note and maintained bullish momentum for the entire week. The S&P/TSX composite index advanced by 530.10 points (2.56%) to 21271.85 for the week ending February 04, 2022. On Monday, the index closed at 21235.50, down marginally by 36.35 points or ~0.17%. The Canadian employment number fell by 200,000 in January and the unemployment rate increased 0.5 percentage points to 6.5% in January highest in nine months. Basic Materials, Utilities, and Financials were the leading sectors, while Industrials, Technology, Academic & Educational Services, Consumer Non-Cyclicals, and Consumer Cyclicals were the laggards on Monday. The weekly chart indicates that the index prices are sustaining below the rising trendline which is acting as a resistance at current levels. Moreover, prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period SMA, holding the current momentum of heading gradually towards the North. The immediate resistance level of the index is 21650, while the immediate support exists at 20850. On the weekly time frame, RSI is showing the reading of ~56.38 levels, slightly gaining traction from these levels. indicating positive momentum.

On the macro front, the upcoming major economic events that may impact the Canadian market sentiment includes Canada Trade Balance C$, US Initial Jobless Claims, and US CPI MM.

Global Markets Wrap-Up 

For the week ending February 04, 2022, S&P 500 closed at 4500.53, up by ~1.55%. Moreover, the Nasdaq composite was also up by ~2.38% and settled at 14098.01. While Russell 2000 ended the week at 2002.36, reflecting an increase of ~1.72%. According to the weekly data published by the U.S. Department of Labor, the seasonally adjusted initial US initial jobless claims data decreased by 23,000 to 238,000 for the week ending January 29, 2022, against the initial claims at 261,000 in the prior week.

Taking into the US market's performance over the last week, connecting the anecdotes from major global macro and data front, and based on our technical analysis of the S&P/TSX Composite Index, the two TSX listed stocks fit the maximum criteria on the technical framework. Mentioned below are the recommendations based on generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Extendicare Inc. (TSX:EXE) and Surge Energy Inc. (TSX:SGY) for the next 2-4 weeks' duration.

Extendicare Inc. 

Extendicare Inc. (TSX: EXE) is a long-term care facilities company. The business has five segments, including Long-term care; Retirement living; Home health care; Other Canadian operations, and corporate segment.

Price Action Analysis (on the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, EXE stock price witnessed a breakout from an inverse head & shoulders (bullish reversal) pattern at CAD 7.45 levels (on February 04, 2022). Since the breakout, prices are floating above the neckline, indicating bulls are in action. Prices are also getting support from the rising trend line that further confirms our bullish stance. The next resistance level is placed around CAD 8.60, and the stock may test that level in the short term (2-4 weeks).

Technical Indicators Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-Period) is pointing at ~56.01 levels, emerging from the lows of 30 mark. In addition, the volume in the stock is showing an upward trend, which indicates higher participation from the investors. Further, the stock is trading above 21-period SMA, which may act as a support level for the prices.

Financial Summary:

General Recommendation:

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical analysis, we can conclude that Extendicare Inc. is looking technically well-placed on the chart. Therefore, we recommend a 'Speculative Buy’ rating on the stock. Investment decisions should be made depending on the investor's appetite for upside potential, risks, and previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Below is the summary of our recommendation.

Surge Energy Inc. 

Surge Energy Inc. (TSX:SGY) is a Canada-based oil exploration and production company. The company is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas from properties in western Canada.

Price Action Analysis (on the weekly chart)

On the weekly chart, SGY stock price witnessed a breakout of the symmetrical triangle pattern at CAD 6.23 level (on January 25, 2022). Prices registered a decisive break out of the sideways consolidation pattern that depicts a change in the trend from sideways to upwards. Now, the next resistance level appears to be at CAD 7.50, and the stock may test that level in the short term (2-4 weeks).

Technical Indicators Analysis (On the weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, the momentum oscillator RSI (14-Period) is showing the reading of ~68.70 levels, indicating positive momentum. The weekly volumes also seem supportive for the upside movement. Moreover, the stock is trading above 21-period and 50-period SMA, which is supportive of the bullish momentum for its continuation.

Financial Summary:

General Recommendation:

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical analysis, Surge Energy Inc. seems to be technically well-placed on the chart. Therefore, we recommend a 'Speculative Buy' rating on the stock. Investment decisions should be made depending on the investor's appetite for upside potential, risks, and previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Below is the summary of our recommendation.

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include updates on employment, inflation, GDP, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the S&P/TSX Composite Index and listed stocks' prices.

Investment Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.60:1.00); however, returns are generated within 2-4 weeks' time frame. This may be looked at by Investors with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within a short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors that could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks, etc.

Note: How to Read the Charts?

The Green color line reflects the 21-period moving average, while the Red color line indicates the 50-period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black color line in the chart's lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period), which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status, while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue color bars in the chart's lower segment show the volume of the stock. The volume is the number of shares that changed hands during a given day. Stocks with high volumes are more liquid than stocks with lesser volume, and we consider stocks with greater than or equal to 200,000 volumes as more liquid. Liquidity in stocks helps in easier and faster execution of the order.

The Orange color lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: - 

Support: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and the uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavorable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. We suggest ~60% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

A trailing stop-loss is a modification of stop-loss in case of favourable movement in the price to protect the gains. We suggest Investors to Trail the Stop-Loss as per the aforementioned levels if the stock price achieves more than 50% of the Target 1. Investors should consider exiting from the position as per the Trailing Stop-Loss level if the price starts moving downwards after achieving more than 50% of the Target 1.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is February 07, 2022. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Abbreviations

CMP: Current Market Price

SMA: Simple Moving Average

CAD: Canadian Dollar

RSI: Relative Strength Index 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by investors. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by investors before any stock evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the stocks; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se. Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Disclaimer

The advice given by Kalkine Canada Advisory Services Inc. and provided on this website is general information only and it does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any particular person. You should therefore consider whether the advice is appropriate to your investment objectives, financial situation and needs before acting upon it. You should seek advice from a financial adviser, stockbroker or other professional (including taxation and legal advice) as necessary before acting on any advice. Not all investments are appropriate for all people. The website www.kalkine.ca is published by Kalkine Canada Advisory Services Inc. The link to our Terms & Conditions has been provided please go through them. On the date of publishing this report (mentioned on the website), employees and/or associates of Kalkine do not hold positions in any of the stocks covered on the website. These stocks can change any time and readers of the reports should not consider these stocks as advice or recommendations later.