Shareholders might have noticed that Bombardier Inc. (TSE:BBD.B) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.0% to CA$85.76 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$1.5b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 43% to hit US$0.37 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Bombardier from 14 analysts is for revenues of US$9.22b in 2025. If met, it would imply an okay 3.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 116% to US$6.01. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$9.17b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.58 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for Bombardier

The consensus price target held steady at CA$112, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Bombardier analyst has a price target of CA$140 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$86.79. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Bombardier's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Bombardier's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.0% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Bombardier.

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The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Bombardier. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bombardier going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk.  We've identified 3 warning signs  with Bombardier (at least 2 which are a bit concerning)  , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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