Key Highlights

  • Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter reached CAD 264 million, free Cash Flow hit CAD 93 million (CAD 0.29 per share), and fleet availability was 92.6%.
  • Quarterly Alberta spot power came in near CAD 36 per MWh, versus CAD 51 a year before, yet the gas fleet still realized CAD 55 per MWh.
  • The Boreal Data Center project near Keephills could reach up to 1.6 GW of load, with 230 MW of initial grid allocation now anticipated.
  • Two Colorado gas peaking plants were bought for USD 1 billion, closing the deal, while 49% of the Oklahoma wind portfolio was sold for USD 305 million.

Cash Generation Holds Despite Weak Alberta Power Prices

TransAlta (NYSE:TAC) hosted its third-quarter 2026 call on November 3, 2026 and reiterated confidence in reaching its 2026 guidance ranges. Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 264 million and free cash flow of CAD 93 million arrived even though Alberta spot prices slid to about CAD 36 per MWh from CAD 51 in the third quarter of 2025, amid strong Supply and mild weather. Management said hedges covering roughly 2.5 thousand GWh at an average of CAD 65 per MWh sat CAD 28 above spot. Corporate costs fell 20% from a year earlier, while a CAD 51 million reduction in carbon obligations also helped.

Battle River Mothballing, Colorado Gas Assets and the Oklahoma Wind Sale

On November 2, 2026, the company notified the Alberta system operator that it will mothball its Battle River units and extend the Sundance 6 mothball outage. The chief executive described the decision as purely economic, since Battle River capacity factors are very low, and said 45 employees remain on site to keep the units ready. October brought the close of a USD 1 billion deal for two Colorado gas peakers totaling 318 MW, which is expected to contribute roughly CAD 110 million of adjusted EBITDA each year. Another step was selling 49% of the 502 MW Oklahoma wind fleet to Ares Infrastructure Funds for USD 305 million, while operational control stays with TransAlta.

Data Center Timing, the Hedge Book and Policy Risks

The Keephills data center project, now named the Boreal Technology Hub, received Alberta Utilities Commission approval in October 2026. The chief executive said definitive agreements with partners Brookfield, CPP Investment and BGRE are likely in early 2027 rather than 2026, depending on how much underused generation the system operator permits. Hedging covers about 6.7 thousand GWh in 2027 at CAD 65 per MWh, which management described as well above current forward prices, so sustained weak spot prices would gradually erode that cushion. In the United States, the Department of Energy ordered Centralia Unit 2 to remain available for another 90 days, and cost recovery is expected but not assured.

Where Things Stand

The mothball reflects weak Economics at low-use units rather than a cash shortfall, and the company says the move keeps Options open for data center demand. TransAlta (NYSE:TAC) delivered CAD 264 million of adjusted EBITDA, a non-IFRS measure, while Alberta spot prices were lower and hedges and fleet optimization closed much of the gap. Items to track include Centralia environmental permits expected by year-end, a final investment decision on its gas conversion next year, the Boreal agreements and how long the 2027 hedge premium lasts.