AAON Inc

Section 1: Company Fundamentals

1.1 Company Overview and Performance summary

Company Overview:

AAON Inc (NASDAQ: AAON) delivers HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) solutions tailored for commercial, industrial, and data center indoor environments. The company operates through three key segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX.

This US Inflation Report covers the Company Overview & Price performance, Summary table, Key positives & negatives, Key metrics, Company details, technical guidance & Stock recommendation, and Price chart.

Price Performance:

• The stock recently bounced off a short-term low near USD74.50 and has surged to USD79.99 (+4.17%), indicating renewed buying interest. This recent up move has broken above the 21-day MA (USD74.34), which can be considered an early bullish signal.
• RSI (14) is at 51.77, which is neutral but has moved above the 50 level, hinting at improving bullish momentum. No overbought or oversold signals are present, leaving room for further upside.
• Volume has picked up on the recent bullish candle, suggesting strong conviction behind the move. This increase in volume supports the strength of the rebound. 

1.2 Summary Table

1.3 The Key Positives & Negatives

1.2 Key Metrics

The chart shows that AAON, Inc.’s revenue steadily increased from Q1 FY24 to Q3 FY24, peaking at USD327.3 million, driven by strong demand for BASX-branded and coil products. However, a dip in Q4 FY24 to USD297.7 million reflects a temporary slowdown due to earlier weak bookings and supply chain issues, particularly with R-454B refrigerant components. Revenue rebounded in Q1 FY25 to USD322.1 million, supported by a 374.8% surge in BASX-branded product sales. Gross profit followed a similar trend, rising through Q3 FY24, falling sharply in Q4 due to reduced production in Oklahoma, and partially recovering in Q1 FY25. Despite higher sales, gross profit remained below Q1 FY24 levels due to ongoing but easing supply chain pressures and lower margins at the Oklahoma facility.

Section 2: AAON, Inc (NASDAQ: AAON) (“Buy” at the closing market price of USD 79.99, as of July 10, 2025)

2.1 Company Details

2.2 Technical Guidance and Stock Recommendation  

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macroeconomic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is July 10, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: The report publishing date is as per the Pacific Time Zone.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

 Resistance: A level at which the stocks prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

 Stop-loss: It is a level to protect against further losses in case of unfavorable movement in the stock prices.