Commodities Show Mixed Performance Last Week as U.S. Coffee Slips Below 50-Day SMA

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Global commodity markets ended the week on a mixed note as investors assessed geopolitical developments in the Middle East alongside expectations around the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Precious metals remained under pressure amid a shifting interest rate outlook, with gold declining 1.90% and silver falling 3.52%. In the base metals segment, movements were relatively uneven. Copper recorded a 0.80% gain, while lead dropped 2.37% and zinc edged lower by 0.01%, indicating cautious industrial demand trends. Overall, market sentiment remained largely influenced by macroeconomic data, as participants continued to evaluate global growth conditions and the potential direction of U.S. monetary policy.

Natural gas declined 2.34% last week as ample supply conditions offset near-term demand expectations, leading to some cooling after earlier volatility. Crude oil, however, climbed 10.65%, supported by geopolitical developments in the Middle East and continued uncertainty surrounding global supply dynamics. In the agricultural segment, U.S. sugar gained 1.91%, reflecting movement within a relatively stable demand environment. Overall, commodity markets maintained a cautious tone, with investors closely monitoring geopolitical developments, supply trends, and macroeconomic signals that continue to shape broader market sentiment.

Global commodity markets ended the week with mixed movements as investors evaluated the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook alongside evolving geopolitical developments. Precious metals moved lower as they shifted interest rate expectations and cautious positioning weighed on prices. Industrial metals showed uneven trends, reflecting moderate signals from global manufacturing activity. In the energy sector, crude oil and natural gas experienced notable fluctuations as markets responded to shifts in supply dynamics and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Agricultural commodities also displayed selective changes, with sugar posting modest gains. Overall sentiment remained cautious and data-driven, with market participants continuing to monitor macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical risks, and policy direction, which shape the broader commodities landscape.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include Industrial Production, PPI, FOMC Statement, New Home Sales and U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss US Coffee May Future (ICE: KCK6) for the next 2-4-week duration:

US Coffee May Future (ICE: KCK6)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: ICE Coffee May futures continue to trade in a weak technical structure, remaining below both the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, which are acting as immediate overhead barriers. The recent move below an important horizontal support zone has softened the short-term trend, although prices are attempting a mild recovery from recent lows. Momentum indicators remain subdued, with the RSI near 41.41, indicating conditions approaching oversold territory while downside momentum begins to moderate. Trading activity also increased during the decline, highlighting strong participation at lower levels. A sustained recovery above the short-term moving averages would be required to improve the near-term price structure.

Now the next crucial support levels appear to be at USc 269.00 and USc 260.00, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

Source: REFINITIV; Analysis: Kalkine Group

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, US Coffee May Future (ICE: KCK6) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Sell’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Sell’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Key Risk: Technical indicators are backward-looking and may generate false or lagged signals, particularly during volatile or changing market conditions. Price trends may also be disrupted by fundamental, macroeconomic, or company-specific developments not captured in charts.

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 13^th March 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.