GQG Partners Inc

Kalkine’s Global Tariff Report delivers objective, data-driven insights into key global sectors impacted by tariff fluctuations. It assesses how these changes influence equity valuations across affected industries, with a focus on trade-sensitive sectors that often attract increased investor attention during times of tariff-related uncertainty. The report also highlights defensive and countercyclical segments that tend to show resilience—or even outperformance—amid disruptions in global trade dynamics.

As illustrated in the table below, several key sectors in different countries are directly impacted by the recent tariff announcement from President Trump.

Key Highlights

Latest Key Developments (as of 9 February 2026) 

Australia

1. Baseline U.S. tariffs include a 10% import duty on Australian goods under Trump’s broad tariff regime (applies to nearly all countries).
2. Australia has mostly escaped the steep “reciprocal” tariff hikes that hit other trading partners, so direct U.S. duty increases on Australian exports have been relatively limited.
3. However, spillover effects — especially slower Chinese demand and global trade disruption — could weigh on Australian exports and mining, tightening economic conditions.

Canada

1. Trump’s earlier plan included 25% tariffs on Canadian imports as part of his tariff escalation — though exemptions for products compliant with USMCA (trade deal) were negotiated, and timing changed due to pauses/extensions.
2. Canada is prominent among U.S. allies opposing these tariffs, and Ottawa has signaled a desire to resolve disagreements through talks rather than deepening trade conflict.
3. Tariffs remain a major point of friction in U.S.–Canada trade relations, with potential risks for auto and industrial supply chains if full reciprocal duties take effect.

India

1. After months of severe tariff tensions (with U.S. duties on Indian goods reaching very high levels), the U.S. and India have agreed an interim trade framework that reduces U.S. tariffs on Indian imports to ~18% from previously elevated levels.
2. Under that deal, India committed to curbing Russian oil purchases as part of broader negotiations, which was a key trigger for earlier tariff escalation.
3. While tariffs have eased, significant duties still remain on key goods, and India maintains protection for sensitive sectors — progress toward a full trade deal continues into 2026.

China

1. China has been a central target of Trump’s tariff increases, with U.S. duties on Chinese imports raised sharply above baseline levels.
2. Beijing has responded with retaliatory tariffs and export controls on U.S. goods, contributing to intensifying trade tensions.
3. Despite tensions, negotiations and dialogue persist intermittently — including possible talks aimed at easing the trade standoff — but a stable resolution remains elusive.

European Union

1. Under Trump’s tariff regime, the EU faces reciprocal U.S. tariffs significantly higher than historic levels (around 20% on many goods, according to U.S. tariff lists).

1. EU policymakers have pushed back firmly, rejecting U.S. proposals for ultra-high tariffs and instead favouring targeted, proportionate retaliatory measures remained justified.
2. Trade negotiations with the U.S. remain complicated by broader geopolitical frictions, including concerns over Russia and NATO cooperation, which intersect with tariff policy discussions.
3. Steel and aluminum remain the most sensitive unresolved area, with continued risk of selective tariff escalation or policy tightening into early 2026.

Australia’s external metrics show a steady but mixed picture, with the trade surplus improving to AUD 3.4bn in December 2025 from AUD 2.6bn previously as exports rose to AUD 44.6bn while imports eased to AUD 41.3bn. The current account deficit stood at AUD 16.6bn (–2.3% of GDP) in September 2025, broadly unchanged, and remains manageable against a backdrop of strong capital inflows of AUD 31.1bn and a recovery in foreign direct investment to AUD 81bn. Terms of trade strengthened to 116 points, supporting income flows despite external debt edging higher to AUD 2.72tn. Improving tourist arrivals (831k in November), stable gold reserves of 79.9 tonnes, and modest crude oil production provide additional support, reinforcing Australia’s overall external resilience amid ongoing global uncertainty.

 Amid elevated Market Volatility and Tariff pressures, GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) stands out as a defensive pick within the Financial Services sector, supported by rigorous fundamental and technical research.

Section 1: Company Overview and Fundamentals Insights

Company Overview: GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) is a global boutique asset management firm specializing in the active management of equity portfolios for a diverse client base, including pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, wealth managers, and institutional investors. Kalkine’s Global Tariff Report covers the Investment Highlights, Management Insights, Key Financial Metrics, Risks, and Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

1.2 The Key Positives, Negatives, Investment Highlights, and Risks

1.3 Top 10 Shareholders:

The top 10 shareholders together form ~80.75% of the total shareholding. Jain (Rajiv), and Carver (Timothy) hold maximum stakes of 70.34% and 3.74%, respectively. 

1.4 Key Metrics: GQG’s closing FUM USD 172.4bn in H1FY25 compared to USD 155.6bn in H1FY24. Below are captured other metrics: 

Section 2: Business Updates, Financial and Operational Highlights

2.1 Recent Business Updates:

2.2 H1FY25 Results Highlights (for the 06 months ended 30 June 2025): Below mentioned are some key financial highlights:  

2.3 Historical Financial Trend

Section 3: Key Risks and Outlook:

Section 4: Stock Recommendation Summary

4.1 Price Performance and Technical Summary

The stock has decreased by ~31.76% in the last nine months, and over the past one year, stock has decreased by ~26.33%. The stock has a 52-week low and 52-week high of AUD 1.425 and AUD 2.610, respectively, and is currently trading below the 52-week high-low average. GQG was last covered in a report dated ‘28 November 2025’.

4.2 Fundamental Valuation and Stock Recommendation

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 09 February 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Note 5: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.