US Markets Round-Up

This week, the Russell 3000 index, an important benchmark of the US stock market across market capitalizations, started on a negative note and continued the momentum. The index made a low of 2155.87 during the week and settled at 2183.43 with a week-to-date (WTD) loss of ~3.42 percent on June 30, 2022. Other major indices such as S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite witnessed bearish momentum for the week. On June 30, 2022, the S&P 500 index settled at 3785.38 with a WTD loss of ~3.23 percent, and the NASDAQ Composite Index settled at 11028.736 with a WTD loss of ~4.99 percent.

The market sentiments turned bearish due to the release of negative economic data during the week such as the Richmond Manufacturing Index, Consumer Confidence, and Final GDP. As per the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the GDP declined at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 and acted as the catalyst for further downside movement.

Having understood the US market performance over the week, taking cues from major global news, and based on technical analysis of the Russell 3000 index for the upcoming week, now let us have a look at the one NYSE/ NASDAQ listed stock pick from the technical standpoint. Noted below is recommendation based on generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for American States Water Company (NYSE: AWR) for the next 2-4 weeks duration: 

American States Water Company 

American States Water Company (NYSE: AWR) is a utility company that provides water, wastewater, and electricity services. Noted below are the key price indicators for the stock:

Price Action Analysis (on the Weekly Chart)

AWR has started to move upside from a crucial support level after forming a positive divergence with the RSI (14-period), indicating the possibility of further upside movement. Now the next major resistance level for the stock appears at USD 92.80 and prices may test this level in the short-term (2-4 weeks). A further movement above USD 92.80 backed by volumes may extend buying in the stock. 

Technical Indicators Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, the leading indicator RSI (14-period) recovered from lower levels after forming a positive divergence with the price action and showing a reading of 47.36. However, the prices are trading below the trend-following indicator 21-period SMA and 50-period SMA, which may act as the resistance levels for the stock.

General Recommendation

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, American States Water Company is looking technically well-placed on the chart, and a ‘Buy’ recommendation has been given on the stock. Investment decision should be made depending on an investor’s appetite for an upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. The summary of recommendation is as follows:

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the Russell 3000 Index and stocks’ prices:

Investment Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.60:1.00), however, returns are generated within 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Investors with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Investors can consider exiting from the stock if the Target Price or Stop loss mentioned as per the technical analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above. 

Note 2: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the stock. The volume is the number of shares that changed hands during a given day. Stocks with high volumes are more liquid than stocks with lesser volume as liquidity in stocks helps in easier and faster execution of the order.

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: Risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~60% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point. 

A trailing stop-loss is a modification of stop-loss in case of favourable movement in the price to protect the gains. Investors can Trail the Stop-Loss as per the aforementioned levels if the stock price achieves more than 50% of the Target 1. Investors should consider exiting from the position as per the Trailing Stop-Loss level if the price starts moving downwards after achieving more than 50% of the Target 1. 

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is June 30, 2022. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Abbreviations

CMP: Current Market Price

SMA: Simple Moving Average

RSI: Relative Strength Index

USD: United States dollar 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by investors. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by investors before any stock evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the stocks; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se. Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Disclaimer

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