Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.

Section1: Commodity Update:

Gold fell to around $3,230 per ounce on April 30, 2025, marking its third consecutive session of losses and hitting its lowest level in two weeks as easing trade tensions between the U.S. and its trading partners dented the metal’s safe-haven appeal. Last month, the precious metal rose over 5%, its fourth straight monthly gain, boosted by safe-haven inflows amid concerns over global trade disruptions and growing signs of economic strain in the U.S. In summary, the outlook for gold remains attractive, with prices reaching new highs due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties.

Data Source: Trading Economics 

Section2: Company Overview and Fundamental Insights:

2.1 Company Overview:

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TSX: TFPM) is a precious metals streaming and royalty company. It offers exposure to gold and silver from a total of 236 assets, consisting of 17 streams and 219 royalties, primarily from the Americas and Australia. These streams and royalties are tied to mining assets at various stages of the mine life cycle, including 30 producing mines and 206 development and exploration stage projects.

Kalkine’s Growth Report covers the Investment Highlights, Key Financial Metrics, Risks, Technical Analysis along with the Valuation, Target Price, and Recommendation on the stock.

2.1 The Key Positives, Negatives, Investment Highlights and Risks

2.3 Top 10 Shareholders:

The top ten shareholders own around 76.77% of the total holdings. Elliott Management Corporation and Fidelity Management & Research Company LLC have a maximum ownership in the company of around 66.63% and 1.90%, respectively. 

2.4 Key Metrics:

The company has consistently recorded decent financial results, which demonstrates its proven business model. The improvement in financial data was solely due to an increase in the sales volumes. Furthermore, the company generated higher cash flows.

Section 3: Business Updates and Financial Highlights

3.1 Recent Updates: The picture below gives an overview of the company’s recent activity on its acquisition of Orogen Royalties and an increase in its credit facility.

3.2 Insights on FY 2024 Financial Performance:

Section 4: Key Risks and Company Outlook

Section 5: Stock Recommendation Summary:

5.1 Price Performance and Technical Summary:

The stock has witnessed a downside of ~2.55% and an upside of ~3.92% over the last 1 week and 1 month respectively. Moreover, the stock is trading above the average 52-week high price of CAD 31.71 and 52-week low price of CAD 19.54, providing an opportunity to ride the trend.

5.2 Fundamental Valuation

Valuation Methodology: EV to Sales Multiple Based Relative Valuation (Illustrative)

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macroeconomic issues and geopolitical tensions prevailing. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is April 30, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement. 

Note 5: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice. 

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.