TMC the metals company Inc

TMC the metals company Inc. (NASDAQ: TMC) is a deep-sea minerals exploration company. The Company is focused on the collection and processing of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in international waters of the Clarion Clipperton Zone in the Pacific Ocean (CCZ), located approximately 1,300 nautical miles southwest of San Diego, California.

Key Business and Financial Updates:

• Strategic Milestone and Liquidity Position: The Metals Company reported a pivotal third quarter marked by the completion of its Pre-Feasibility Study and Initial Assessment, positioning the company at a critical juncture in the development of deep-sea polymetallic nodules. As at September 30, 2025, TMC held cash of approximately USD 115.6 million, with total liquidity subsequently rising to roughly USD 165 million following post-quarter warrant exercises and access to undrawn credit facilities, providing near-term funding visibility without the need for external capital markets.
• Financial Performance Reflects Non-Recurring Adjustments: The quarter recorded an operating loss of USD 55.4 million and a net loss of USD 184.5 million (USD 0.46 per share), largely driven by non-cash and non-recurring items, including share-based compensation from one-time grants and fair value adjustments to royalty and warrant liabilities. Cash used in operations totaled USD 11.5 million, while exploration and evaluation expenses declined year-on-year, reflecting the completion of prior major offshore campaigns and a shift toward development and regulatory engagement.
• Economic Validation of Deep-Sea Resources: TMC published two Regulation S-K compliant economic studies during the quarter, highlighting a combined project net present value of approximately USD 23.6 billion across its NORI and TOML contract areas. This included a world-first Pre-Feasibility Study for the NORI-D project, declaring 51 million tonnes of probable mineral reserves and establishing a projected pathway to commercial production in Q4 2027, subject to receipt of a commercial recovery permit.
• Regulatory Momentum and Policy Tailwinds: Regulatory developments continued to trend favorably, with NOAA confirming full compliance of TMC USA’s exploration license applications and advancing them into the certification phase. Concurrently, U.S. policy signals strengthened, including White House review of a consolidated seabed mining rule and the addition of copper to the U.S. Critical Minerals List, meaning all four metals contained in nodules are now formally designated as critical to U.S. economic and national security interests.
• Technological Progress and ESG Positioning: Operationally, TMC achieved a notable technical breakthrough by producing battery-grade manganese sulfate from nodule-derived material at bench scale, reinforcing the potential for domestic supply of a metal critical to EV and industrial applications. In parallel, the company continued to advance its extensive environmental research program, asserting that validated data supports the view that environmental impacts of nodule collection can be managed responsibly at commercial scale, underpinning its long-term license to operate.

Key Company specific risks for TMC:

• Regulatory and Permitting Uncertainty: TMC’s pathway to commercial production is highly dependent on the timely approval of exploration certifications and a commercial recovery permit. Any delays, adverse policy shifts, or prolonged regulatory review—particularly in the evolving U.S. deep-sea mining framework—could materially defer project timelines and undermine the company’s development thesis.
• Financing and Cash Burn Risk: As a pre-revenue developer with ongoing operating losses, TMC remains exposed to funding risk over the medium term. While current liquidity is adequate for near-term needs, extended permitting timelines, higher-than-expected development costs, or adverse capital market conditions could necessitate additional financing, potentially resulting in shareholder dilution or constrained strategic flexibility.
• Execution and Technology Scale-Up Risk: The transition from pilot-scale and bench-scale validation to full commercial-scale deep-sea nodule collection and processing carries significant technical and operational risk. Underperformance in system reliability, recovery rates, metallurgical processing, or cost assumptions could impair project economics relative to Pre-Feasibility Study expectations and delay value realization.

Technical Observation (on the daily chart):

• Trend Structure: Post-Rally Consolidation: The Metals Company is consolidating after a sharp prior advance, with the pullback from the USD 11.35 peak reflecting profit-taking rather than a clear breakdown. The broader price structure still holds above early-2025 levels, indicating a pause within a wider upward trajectory.
• Moving Averages: Near-Term Weakness, Key Support Holds: The stock has fallen below the 21-day moving average, signalling short-term pressure, while the 50-day moving average around USD 7.14 continues to provide medium-term support. Holding above this level keeps the technical bias neutral-to-constructive.
• Momentum & Volume: Cooling, Not Capitulation: RSI in the low-40s indicates moderated momentum without oversold stress, consistent with consolidation. Volume spikes appear episodic rather than persistent, suggesting selective selling and a potential base-building phase ahead.

TMC the metals company Inc. delivered a constructive third quarter highlighted by completion of its Pre-Feasibility Study, reinforcing the economic and technical credibility of its deep-sea polymetallic nodule strategy while maintaining adequate near-term liquidity of around USD 165 million. Reported losses were largely influenced by non-cash and non-recurring items, with operating cash usage remaining moderate as the company shifts from exploration toward development and permitting. The publication of Regulation S-K compliant studies, indicating a combined project NPV of approximately USD 23.6 billion and formal mineral reserve declarations, materially strengthened long-term optionality, while regulatory momentum improved through NOAA compliance confirmations and supportive U.S. critical minerals policy signals. Technological progress in battery-grade manganese production and ongoing environmental research further underpinned the strategic case, while the share price appears to be consolidating after a prior rally, reflecting a neutral near-term technical posture with key support levels holding.

As per the above-mentioned price action, important resistance near USD 7.00-USD 7.50, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘WATCH’ rating has been given for TMC the metals company Inc (NASDAQ: TMC) at the closing price of USD6.53, as of February 04, 2026.

Individuals can evaluate the stock based on the support and resistance levels provided in the report in case of keen interest taking into consideration the risk-reward scenario. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Related Risk: This report may be looked at from a high-risk perspective, and a recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc. 

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is February 04, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level that the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Capital Markets (NASDAQ), and or REFINITIV. Typically, all sources (NYSE, NASDAQ, or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.