This report is an updated version of the report published on 3 March 2026 at 3:00 AM EST.  

MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP)  

MP Materials Corp.  produces specialty materials that are vital inputs for electrification and other advanced technologies. The Company owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility (Mountain Pass) located in California. 

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at USD 63.73 

• Trading Near Resistance Level: MP’s share price surpassed its R1 level recommended on 24 February 2026, the 14-day RSI is now around 56.68. Therefore, share price can face resistance at the current levels.
• Rising Operating Cost Base: Total operating costs and expenses increased to USD 424.8 million in FY25 from USD 373.3 million in FY24, driven by higher selling, general and administrative expenses, reflecting mounting cost pressures on operations.
• Widening Net Loss: Net loss expanded to USD 85.9 million in FY25 compared with USD 65.4 million in FY24, indicating continued profitability challenges.

• Overvalued Multiples: On a forward 12-month – key valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA, Price/Earnings, Price/Book Value and Price/Cash Flow) are higher than average of the Basic Materials’ sector. 
• Operational Risk: Production disruptions from equipment failures or mining challenges may delay deliveries and raise costs, while rare earth price volatility and reliance on critical chemicals and skilled labor could further pressure margins and operational stability.

MP Daily Price Chart

Daily Technical Chart, Data Source: REFINITV   

Valuation Methodology: EV/Sales Approach (FY December'26E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight discount to its peers considering YoY decline in materials segment revenue in FY25, widening net losses, negative operating cash flows in FY25, and rising long-term debt levels. For conducting the valuation, peers such as Southern Copper Corp (NYSE: SCCO), Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (NYSE: AEM), Linde PLC (NASDAQ: LIN), and others have been considered.

Given the stock has surpassed its R1 level, recent rally in the share price, and risks associated, it is prudent to sell the stock at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the closing market price of USD 63.73, as of 2 March 2026. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing. 

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 2 March 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.