This report is an updated version of the report published on 09 March 2026 at 09:54 AM IST.

National Aluminium Company Limited (NSE: NATIONALUM)

is an integrated Indian producer of bauxite, alumina, and aluminium, operating mining, refining, smelting, and renewable assets, while exploring overseas battery mineral sourcing through strategic partnerships.

Recommendation Rationale – SELL at INR 400.15

• Financial Highlights: NATIONALUM reported operating expenses of INR 7,233cr in Q3FY26 compared to INR 6,709cr in Q3FY25, reflecting an 8.0% YoY increase, mainly due to higher input costs and increased operational activity. Finance costs rose sharply to INR 76cr in Q3FY26 from INR 27cr in Q3FY25, marking a 181.0% YoY increase, primarily driven by higher borrowings and interest expenses. Meanwhile, other operating income declined to INR 82cr in Q3FY26 from INR 86cr in Q3FY25, indicating a 5.0% YoY decrease due to lower ancillary income during the period.
• Trading Near the Resistance: NATIONALUM stock has approaching its R1 level recommended on 11 February 2026. Therefore, share price can face resistance at the current levels.
• Overvalued Multiples: On a Trailing 12-months basis – key trading multiples (EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and Price/Book) are higher than Industry Average of the Materials Sector.
• Market Risk: Operating in the cyclical aluminium industry, NATIONALUM remains exposed to volatility in global aluminium prices, LME benchmark fluctuations, and changing supply–demand dynamics. Geopolitical tensions, including the U.S.–Iran conflict, may disrupt energy markets and increase commodity price volatility. Additionally, currency movements, trade policy changes, environmental regulations, and supply-side constraints could pressure margins and impact operational performance.

NATIONALUM’s Daily Chart

Valuation Methodology: Price/Earnings Multiple Approach (FY March'27E) (Illustrative)

Stock might trade at a slight premium to its peers considering the YoY net sales growth in Q3FY26, an increase in PAT, higher alumina and metal volume, along with continued cost efficiency and ongoing refinery expansion. For conducting the valuation, the following peers included: Tata Steel Ltd (NSE: TATASTEEL), Steel Authority of India Ltd (NSE: SAIL), and Hindustan Zinc Ltd (NSE: HINDZINC) have been considered.

Given the company’s exposure to high aluminium prices, rising finance costs, higher operating expenses, and macroeconomic uncertainties, the near-term earnings outlook may remain sensitive to commodity cycles and cost pressures. Considering the risks associated, the share price may face consolidation at the current levels. Hence, a ‘Sell’ recommendation is given on the stock at the current price of INR 400.15 (as of 09 March 2026, at 09:15 AM IST).

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and geopolitical issues prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Note 1: Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 09 March 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from REFINITIV or Trading View. Typically, REFINITIV or Trading View may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 25-30 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest.

Stop-loss: In general, it is a level to protect further losses in case of any unfavourable movement in the stock prices.