Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) 

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is a leading global provider of semiconductor solutions, engaged in the design and manufacturing of advanced chip products. The company’s operations are organized into three main segments: Intel Products, Intel Foundry, and All Other. As per our previous US Inflation report published on ‘INTC’ on Oct 24, 2025, Kalkine provided a ‘Buy’ stance on the stock at USD 38.16 based on fundamental analysis and the stock price has now moved up by 14.12% and trading above resistance 2.

Noted below are the details of technical summary provided in our previous report:

Rationale:

• Intel’s 18A Breakthrough: Intel shares jumped around 7% after the company confirmed shipment of its first commercial chips built on the long-awaited 18A manufacturing process. The newly launched Panther Lake processors, branded as Core Ultra Series 3, mark a major execution milestone, with more than 200 PC designs expected, pre-orders already underway, and a global rollout beginning January 27. Featuring up to 180 TOPS and support for 70B-parameter models, the chips reinforce Intel’s push toward on-device AI, reducing reliance on cloud computing and strengthening confidence in its product and manufacturing roadmap.
• Margin Pressure and Near-Term Profitability Headwinds: Despite improved execution in Q3 FY2025, Intel continues to face margin pressure, with management guiding to a sequential decline in non-GAAP gross margin to ~36.5% in Q4 FY2025, down meaningfully year-on-year. This deterioration is attributed to an unfavorable product mix, higher early ramp costs associated with Core Ultra 3 (Panther Lake), and the deconsolidation of Altera, highlighting that profitability remains sensitive to new product ramps and structural changes in the portfolio.
• Persistent Capacity Constraints and Demand-Supply Mismatch: Intel acknowledged that capacity constraints, particularly on Intel 10 and Intel 7 nodes, limited its ability to fully meet demand in both client and data center segments during Q3 and are expected to persist into 2026. While demand strength is positive, these constraints cap near-term revenue upside and force prioritization decisions, potentially impacting customer relationships and competitive positioning in fast-moving markets.
• Foundry Losses and Execution Risk in Long-Term Investments: Intel Foundry remains a significant drag on overall financial performance, reporting an operating loss of approximately USD 2.3 billion in Q3 FY2025, despite sequential improvement. The business requires sustained, capital-intensive investment with uncertain timing of returns, and management itself characterizes building a world-class foundry as a long-term effort dependent on earning customer trust, underscoring continued execution and cash flow risks.
• Earnings Visibility Weakened by Heavy Capital Intensity: The company’s outlook reflects ongoing strain from elevated capital expenditures, with gross capex expected to rise to approximately USD 18 billion in 2025 and total deployment exceeding USD 27 billion, materially higher than the prior year. While balance sheet liquidity has improved through asset monetization and external funding, the scale of investment required heightens sensitivity to any slowdown in demand, delays in technology ramps, or weaker-than-expected external foundry adoption.

Valuation (Using EV/EBITDA Multiple)

INTC’s Daily Chart

Conclusion

Intel’s recent ~7% rally has been driven by the long-awaited confirmation of 18A shipments and the launch of Panther Lake, removing a key execution overhang and significantly improving near-term sentiment. While this milestone validates the company’s roadmap and strengthens its positioning in on-device AI, the financial payoff is likely to be gradual and remains constrained by early ramp costs, margin pressure, capacity limitations, and the continued losses and high capital intensity of the foundry business. With a major catalyst now realized and much of the optimism reflected in the share price, the current risk-reward balance supports booking a notional profit while reassessing exposure at more attractive levels or on clearer evidence of sustained earnings traction.

Considering the growth catalysts, valuation downside, current trading levels, risks associated, and volatile market conditions, a ‘Sell’ rating is assigned to the ’INTC’ at the current market price of USD 43.55 as of January 7, 2026 (11:55 am EST).

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is 07 January 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level which the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and/or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenario.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and or REFINITIV. Typically, both sources (LSE and or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.’

Note 6: Dividend Yield may vary as per the stock price movement.