Oscar Health, Inc

Oscar Health, Inc (NYSE: OSCR) is a healthcare technology company operating on a comprehensive, full-stack technology platform. Its business includes both its insurance operations and the +Oscar platform, with its health plans primarily serving the individual insurance market.

Key Business Updates

• Revenue Growth and Market Expansion: Oscar Health reported strong top-line performance in the third quarter of 2025, with total revenue rising to USD 3.0 billion, up from USD 2.4 billion in the same period of 2024. This growth was primarily driven by a substantial increase in membership within the Individual and Small Group segments, accompanied by higher premium revenue. The company’s expanding footprint and disciplined pricing strategy further supported year-over-year revenue gains.
• Medical Costs and Loss Ratio Dynamics: The medical loss ratio (MLR) increased to 88.5% from 84.6% in the prior-year quarter, reflecting higher average market morbidity and a corresponding rise of USD 130 million in net risk adjustment transfer accruals. While unfavorable morbidity pressures persisted, the impact was partially offset by USD 84 million of favorable prior-period development and USD 22 million in favorable intra-year development. The shift in MLR underscores the changing cost environment in the individual market.
• Administrative Efficiency and Operating Discipline: Oscar Health demonstrated continued improvements in cost efficiency, with the SG&A expense ratio decreasing to 17.5% from 19.0% in the previous year. This reduction was attributed to enhanced fixed-cost leverage, lower exchange fee rates, and ongoing cost-control initiatives. These operational efficiencies helped mitigate the effect of rising medical costs, although overall profitability remained pressured.
• Profitability and Operating Performance: The company reported a loss from operations of USD 129.3 million, compared with a loss of USD 48.4 million in the third quarter of 2024. The widening loss was primarily driven by increased medical expenses arising from higher market morbidity. Despite improved SG&A efficiency and favorable development adjustments, the elevated risk adjustment accrual materially impacted operating results. Net loss attributable to Oscar Health increased to USD 137.5 million, reflecting broader cost pressures.
• Adjusted EBITDA and Underlying Financial Trends: Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter stood at a loss of USD 101.5 million, compared with a loss of USD 11.6 million in the prior-year period. The decline was influenced by rising medical costs and changes in the risk adjustment environment. While non-cash stock-based compensation expenses moderated year over year, these improvements were insufficient to offset the broader deterioration in claims experience, resulting in weaker underlying profitability.
• Membership Growth and Business Scaling: Total membership increased significantly to 2.12 million from 1.65 million a year earlier, reflecting the company’s successful expansion efforts and product positioning in the individual and small group markets. The Individual and Small Group segment alone grew by over 508,000 members year over year. This scaling underscores Oscar’s growing influence in the healthcare technology-enabled insurance landscape, despite the sunset of the Cigna+Oscar partnership.
• Capital Structure Management and Strategic Outlook: During the quarter, Oscar Health continued optimizing its capital structure through a partial settlement of its 2031 Convertible Senior Notes, exchanging approximately USD 187.5 million in principal for 23.3 million Class A shares. This action reflects the company’s strategy to reduce future interest expenses and streamline its balance sheet. Management reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and reiterated confidence in achieving margin expansion and a return to profitability in 2026.

Technical Observation (on the daily chart):

The stock recently rebounded after a sharp November decline, finding support near the USD 14 level and showing signs of stabilization. Price has crossed back above the 20-day moving average (15.81) but remains below the 50-day moving average (18.20), indicating the early stages of a potential short-term recovery but still within a broader corrective phase. The RSI near 61 reflects improving momentum without being overbought, supporting the possibility of further upside. However, the downtrend from late October remains unbroken until the price can reclaim the USD 18–USD 19 zone, making that range a key resistance area to confirm a trend reversal.

Oscar Health delivered strong top-line momentum in Q3 2025, supported by substantial membership growth and disciplined pricing across its core Individual and Small Group segment. The company continued to enhance operational efficiency, reflected in a lower SG&A ratio, while favourable prior-period and intra-year development helped offset part of the medical cost pressure. With a strengthened capital position following proactive balance sheet actions and reaffirmed full-year guidance, Oscar remains well-positioned to expand margins and progress toward its targeted return to profitability in 2026.

As per the above-mentioned price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis, a ‘Buy’ rating has been given Oscar Health, Inc (NYSE: OSCR) at the closing market price of USD 16.73 as of Nov 25,2025. 

Individuals can evaluate the stock based on the support and resistance levels provided in the report in case of keen interest taking into consideration the risk-reward scenario. 

Markets are trading in a highly volatile zone currently due to certain macro-economic issues and prevailing geopolitical tensions. Therefore, it is prudent to follow a cautious approach while investing.

Related Risk: This report may be looked at from a high-risk perspective and a recommendation is provided for a short duration. This report is solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risks, currency risks, social and political instability risks etc. 

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is November 25,2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level that the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Capital Markets (NASDAQ), and or REFINITIV. Typically, all sources (NYSE, NASDAQ, or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.