Company Overview: MINISO Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: MNSO) is a China-based holding company mainly engaged in the development, retail and wholesale of lifestyle and pop toy products featuring intellectual property (IP) design. 

As per our previous US Daily Report published on ‘MNSO’ on 26^th March 2025, Kalkine provided a ‘Buy’ stance on the stock at USD 18.73, based on “price action, recent key business and financial updates, momentum in the stock over the last month, and technical indicators analysis”.

Current Macro and company specific rationales:

• S. Tariff Policies and Trade Tensions: U.S. tariffs, mirrored by China’s 34% tariff on all imports from the United States as announced by the official Xinhua News Agency, have escalated trade tensions, disrupting global supply chains and increasing costs for MINISO Group (MNSO), which relies on sourcing affordable lifestyle products for its retail operations. This tariff war reduces consumer demand in international markets, putting downward pressure on MNSO’s stock price.
• Fears of a U.S. Recession: Concerns over a potential U.S. recession have led to reduced consumer spending on non-essential lifestyle products, a core offering of MINISO’s retail model. This economic slowdown dampens sales growth in one of MINISO’s key markets, contributing to a decline in its stock price.
• Dependence on Physical Retail in a Digital Shift: MINISO’s business model heavily relies on its network of physical stores, which faces challenges as consumer preferences increasingly shift toward online shopping. This digital transition, accelerated by competitors’ e-commerce strategies, risks reducing foot traffic and sales, negatively impacting MNSO’s stock valuation.
• Vulnerability to Supply Chain Disruptions: MINISO’s low-cost product strategy depends on a complex global supply chain, making it particularly susceptible to disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions and rising shipping costs. These challenges increase operational expenses and threaten profit margins, further pressuring MNSO’s stock price.

Noted below are the details of support and resistance levels provided in our previous report:

MNSO’s Daily Chart

Considering the current trading levels, volatile macro environment, tariffs increased both by US and China, breaking of key important support of USD 19-USD 20, and risks associated, a ‘Sell’ rating is assigned to the “MNSO” at the closing market price of USD 18.07, as of April 03, 2025. 

Note: This report may be updated with details around fundamental and technical analysis, price/ chart in due course, as appropriate

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance level is April 03, 2025. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note 3: Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual's appetite for upside potential, risks, holding duration, and any previous holdings. An 'Exit' from the stock can be considered if the Target Price mentioned as per the Valuation and or the technical levels provided has been achieved and is subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 4: Target Price refers to a price level that the stock is expected to reach as per the relative valuation method and or technical analysis taking into consideration both short-term and long-term scenarios.

Note 5: ‘Kalkine reports are prepared based on the stock prices captured either from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Capital Markets (NASDAQ), and or REFINITIV. Typically, all sources (NYSE, NASDAQ, or REFINITIV) may reflect stock prices with a delay which could be a lag of 15-20 minutes. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with the information provided in the report. The information is subject to change without any prior notice.’