Key Highlights

  • USD 5.15 to USD 5.60 is the raised 2026 adjusted EPS outlook of Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM), up from USD 4.15 to USD 4.70, as the company prepares to report before the open on November 3, 2026.
  • June quarter adjusted EPS was USD 1.84, up from USD 0.93 a year earlier, and total segment operating profit rose 75 percent to USD 1.45 billion, per the company release.
  • The screener and published next-quarter consensus is USD 1.60, but the outlook implies second-half EPS of about USD 2.60 to USD 3.05, or USD 1.30 to USD 1.53 per quarter (simple arithmetic).
  • Rival Bunge reported on October 29, 2026 with adjusted EPS of USD 2.56 versus USD 2.27 a year earlier and kept its full-year range at USD 9.25 to USD 9.75.

What ADM Reports on November 3

Archer-Daniels-Midland reports third-quarter 2026 results before the open on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with a Market Value of about USD 37.1 billion on the screener. The June quarter was a large surprise: adjusted EPS of USD 1.84 against a USD 1.44 consensus. Ag Services and Oilseeds profit rose 129 percent to USD 867 million, Carbohydrate Solutions rose 22 percent to USD 411 million on stronger ethanol margins, and Nutrition rose 51 percent to USD 172 million. The company raised its outlook, with CEO Juan Luciano citing expectations for the back half. Shares have since fallen 3.3 percent through October 28, per published data, while the S&P 500 ETF rose 0.1 percent.

What Drives Crush Margins

A crush Margin is the combined value of the soybean meal and oil produced minus the cost of the beans. The company credits the Renewable Fuel Standard Volume obligations for 2026 and 2027, finalized in March 2026, with improving crushing and ethanol margins, because biofuel Demand supports vegetable oil prices. The outlook math matters: first-half adjusted EPS was about USD 2.55 (USD 0.71 plus USD 1.84, from published data), so the USD 5.15 to USD 5.60 range implies USD 2.60 to USD 3.05 in the second half. A USD 1.60 third quarter would sit above the guidance-implied quarterly average. Operating Cash Flow of USD 1.3 billion year to date was down from USD 3.96 billion because of working capital.

Bull Case, Bear Case and the Bunge Read-Across

In the bull case, crush margins hold, EPS beats USD 1.60 and the range is raised again. In the bear case, trade disruptions and policy changes erode margins, and a bar above the implied average proves too high. Bunge's October 29 quarter is a useful marker: soybean processing profit rose to USD 565 million from USD 478 million and softseed profit rose to USD 329 million from USD 275 million, while tropical oils fell to USD 16 million from USD 51 million on trade disruptions. Bunge held its range, so the share reaction was not verified. No options-implied move was found; as labeled arithmetic, a 5 percent move on USD 37.1 billion is about USD 1.9 billion.

Where Things Stand

The agribusiness is Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM), and the evidence says its raised outlook is supported by a sector backdrop that Bunge's strong quarter confirmed, but the USD 1.60 consensus is demanding against the implied second-half average. The shares have drifted lower since August despite the raise. The next catalysts are the November 3, 2026 release, any further guidance change, and commentary on biofuel policy, trade flows and the USD 1.3 billion to USD 1.5 billion capital spending plan.