Key Highlights

  • Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET) raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to USD 18.8 billion to USD 19.1 billion, up from USD 18.2 billion to USD 18.6 billion last quarter and USD 17.45 billion to USD 17.85 billion at the start of the year.
  • Consensus for the third quarter report, due before the open on November 3, 2026, is about USD 0.41 per unit, against USD 0.59 in the second quarter, so the Street expects a sequential decline.
  • On the latest quote the units traded near USD 20.25, roughly 7.9 percent below the 52-week high of USD 21.84. This is simple arithmetic on two published numbers.
  • Growth Capital is budgeted at USD 5.6 billion to USD 5.9 billion, and the USD 2.6 billion Vaquero Midstream purchase was announced on October 7, 2026.

What The Street Expects On November 3

Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET) reports before the market opens on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Published consensus sits near USD 0.41 per unit, with one data set at USD 0.40, and Revenue estimates range from about USD 31.0 billion to USD 35.6 billion depending on the provider, so revenue comparisons deserve caution. The second quarter delivered adjusted EBITDA of USD 5.1 billion and EPS of USD 0.59. Raising the full-year EBITDA range twice in 2026 sets a high bar, because the Partnership now has to show the volumes behind the guidance. Analysts will focus on fee-based earnings, the capital plan, and whether management lifts the range again.

Pipelines And Deals Behind The Guidance

The mechanism is Volume under long-term contracts: once a pipeline or processing plant enters service, fee-based flows convert into EBITDA with little added cost. The Hugh Brinson pipeline was expected to have 1.5 billion cubic feet per day of Phase 1 capacity by September 1, Mustang Draw 1 entered service in June and ran near capacity, and roughly 300,000 barrels per day of new Y-grade contracts have been signed. Management has said it expects more large pipeline announcements by November, and 250 million cubic feet per day of Oklahoma power Demand was reported in final negotiation. Mustang Draw 2 and Fract 9 are expected in late 2026.

Bull Case, Bear Case And Peer Read

In a bull case, Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET) prints near the USD 0.46 whisper-level number cited in a market preview, lifts guidance again, and units retest USD 21.84, about 7.9 percent above the latest quote. In a bear case, EPS lands at or below USD 0.41 with unchanged guidance or slipping project timing, and the 200-day average near USD 19.48, about 3.8 percent below the latest quote, becomes the reference. Both moves are simple arithmetic, since no options-implied move was found. Among peers, Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) reported adjusted EPS of USD 0.35 against consensus of about USD 0.32 to USD 0.33 and guided above budget. Risks include project delays, funding a larger capital plan and Commodity spreads.

Where Things Stand

Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET) is expected to show lower quarterly EPS than in the second quarter, so the headline question is answered with a qualified yes: the dip is a consensus expectation, while the raised EBITDA outlook says the contracted volume engine is still growing. The balance of evidence is positive on volumes and contracting, and more cautious on capital intensity and execution. The next catalysts are the call itself, the large pipeline announcements management said to expect by November, and the late 2026 start-ups of Mustang Draw 2 and Fract 9. This is a preview, not a forecast of results.