Key Highlights

  • Toast (NYSE:TOST) reports third quarter 2026 results after the close on November 3, 2026. Consensus EPS is USD 0.37, and the Market Value is about USD 17.96 billion.
  • Third quarter guidance is non-GAAP recurring Gross Profit of USD 615 million to USD 625 million, up 22 to 24 percent, and adjusted EBITDA of USD 210 million to USD 220 million.
  • Second quarter Revenue was USD 1,908 million, up 23 percent, with annualized Recurring Revenue of USD 2.4 billion, about 180,000 locations and USD 60.7 billion of gross payment volume.
  • Full-year guidance was raised to recurring gross profit of USD 2,325 million to USD 2,355 million and adjusted EBITDA of USD 805 million to USD 825 million.

What Investors Expect From the Third Quarter

This is an upcoming event, not a reported result. Second quarter non-GAAP recurring gross profit was USD 595 million, so the guide implies sequential growth of about 3.4 to 5.0 percent, simple arithmetic on published figures. Adjusted EBITDA guidance of USD 210 million to USD 220 million compares with USD 221 million in the second quarter, which included a one-time Tariff refund of about USD 10 million. The USD 0.37 estimate compares with second quarter diluted GAAP EPS of USD 0.26, though the basis of that estimate was not confirmed, and the company's own guidance is the benchmark investors will use.

Locations, Cash Flow and Buybacks

The company added a record 9,500 net locations in the second quarter, taking the base to about 180,000, up 22 percent, and gross payment Volume rose 22 percent. Subscription annualized recurring revenue was USD 1.21 billion and payments annualized recurring revenue was USD 1.20 billion, each growing more than 20 percent. Operating Income doubled to USD 152 million, but Operating Cash Flow fell to USD 144 million from USD 223 million and free cash flow to USD 130 million from USD 208 million. Buybacks were USD 163 million in the quarter and USD 486 million year to date, retiring 19 million shares at Toast (NYSE:TOST), an important support for per-share earnings.

Bull Case, Bear Case and the Size of the Move

No options-implied move was found, so the arithmetic is simple: each 5 percent move on a USD 17.96 billion market value is about USD 0.9 billion. A bull case is recurring gross profit above USD 625 million, another record in net location additions and a raised full-year guide. A bear case is slower location growth, falling free cash flow or weaker restaurant spending that hits payment volume at Toast (NYSE:TOST), especially after a quarter in which cash generation was lower than a year earlier. Block also reports on November 3 after the close, which may colour sentiment toward merchant software and payments. Management has also highlighted the Toast IQ Grow launch and a UK rollout with TGI Fridays as growth products.

Where Things Stand

The answer is Toast (NYSE:TOST): a guide of USD 615 million to USD 625 million implies steady 22 to 24 percent growth, and the quarter must show that location additions and payment volume are holding. The balance of evidence is constructive on growth and profit, with risks from free cash flow declines, restaurant Demand and high expectations. The next catalyst is the November 3 release, then fourth quarter guidance and any 2027 framework.