The TSX Index is expected to open on a weaker note

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is expected to open on a weaker note following pronounced weakness in the basic materials and technology sectors during the previous trading session.

From a technical standpoint, the index continues to trade comfortably above its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which remains a key dynamic support level and reinforces the prevailing bullish trend, suggesting that buyers continue to maintain control of the broader market direction. Momentum remains constructive, with price action holding above important support levels despite the recent pullback. The index is now approaching a significant resistance zone near 35,300, which represents a crucial test of upside momentum. A decisive breakout above this level could strengthen bullish sentiment, attract fresh buying interest, and pave the way for a move toward the psychological 35,600 mark. Conversely, an inability to overcome resistance may result in a period of short-term consolidation before the next directional trend emerges.

Global Market Sentiment

Global markets remain focused on the trajectory of interest rates as major central banks continue to emphasize a cautious, data-dependent approach to monetary policy. Investors are evaluating whether inflation is moderating sufficiently to support future rate cuts while economic growth remains resilient enough to avoid a significant slowdown.

Recent economic data has shown a mixed picture across major economies. Consumer spending and labor markets have generally remained resilient, while manufacturing activity and business confidence indicators continue to face headwinds. Markets are also keeping a close watch on geopolitical tensions and global trade developments, both of which have the potential to influence commodity prices and investor sentiment.

In Canada, investors continue to monitor inflation expectations, labor market conditions, and economic growth indicators for clues regarding the Bank of Canada's policy outlook through the second half of the year.

Commodity view — what will move the TSX

• Crude: Crude oil dropped below $75 per barrel on Thursday, the lowest level since early March, as markets reacted to the US and Iran reaching an agreement to end a prolonged conflict that caused the largest supply disruption on record. 
• Gold: Gold rose above $4,300 an ounce on Thursday, recovering losses from the previous session after President Donald Trump signed an interim agreement to end the conflict with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Silver: Silver climbed above $69 an ounce on Thursday, recovering losses from the previous session after President Donald Trump signed an interim agreement to end the conflict with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Copper: Copper futures dropped below $6.4 per pound on Thursday, giving back gains from earlier in the week after Rio Tinto resumed exports of copper concentrate from its giant Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia following a brief protest-related disruption.

Sector watch

Energy: Expected to remain the leading TSX sector if crude oil prices continue their upward trend. Integrated producers and exploration companies are likely to remain in focus.

Materials: Gold miners could benefit from strong bullion prices, while copper and diversified miners remain tied to industrial commodity demand.

Financials: Canadian banks will be watching bond yields and economic data closely, as changes in rate expectations continue to influence sector performance.

Industrials: Transportation, engineering, and infrastructure companies may react to shifts in growth expectations and commodity demand.

Technology: Technology stocks are expected to track broader North American market sentiment and Treasury yield movements.

Currency Movements

The Canadian dollar remains closely linked to crude oil prices and broader U.S. dollar trends. Continued strength in commodities could provide support for the loonie, while shifts in risk appetite may drive currency volatility.

Canadian government bond yields are likely to follow movements in U.S. Treasuries as investors continue to assess inflation and growth prospects. Rate-sensitive sectors such as financials, utilities, and real estate will remain particularly responsive to yield changes.

What to watch today

• Early moves in crude oil, gold, and copper
• Geopolitical developments affecting energy markets
• Canadian and U.S. bond yield movements
• Inflation and economic data releases
• Canadian dollar performance against the U.S. dollar
• Corporate updates from major TSX-listed energy, mining, and financial companies

Outlook

TSX expected to open cautiously as investors balance firm commodity prices against uncertainty surrounding interest rates and global growth.

Bottom line: Elevated oil and gold prices, alongside evolving rate expectations, are likely to remain the primary drivers of TSX trading on June 18, with energy and materials expected to lead market performance while investors monitor macroeconomic and geopolitical developments closely.