The TSX Index is expected to open on a weaker note

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is expected to open on a weaker note, pressured by softness in the energy and technology sectors during the previous trading session.

From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade comfortably above its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing the prevailing bullish trend and indicating that buyers remain in control of the broader market direction. Momentum remains constructive, with price action continuing to hold above key support levels and supporting the positive medium-term outlook. The index is now approaching an important resistance zone near 35,100, which represents a key test of upside momentum. A decisive breakout above this level could strengthen bullish sentiment, attract additional buying interest, and pave the way for a move toward the psychologically significant 35,400 level. Conversely, failure to overcome resistance may result in a period of short-term consolidation as investors assess the next directional catalyst. Nevertheless, as long as the index remains above its key support levels, the broader technical outlook is expected to remain favourable.

Global Market Sentiment

Global markets continue to navigate a complex environment characterized by moderating inflation, resilient labor markets, and uncertainty surrounding the timing of future interest-rate cuts. Investors remain focused on incoming economic data as they seek clarity on whether central banks have sufficient room to ease policy without reigniting inflationary pressures.

Recent economic releases have highlighted a divergence between relatively stable consumer spending and softer manufacturing activity across several major economies. As a result, market participants remain cautious about the pace of global growth heading into the second half of the year.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments continue to influence commodity markets and risk sentiment. Investors are closely monitoring developments in key energy-producing regions, as any supply disruptions could further impact inflation expectations and commodity prices.

Commodity view — what will move the TSX

• Crude: Crude oil steadied near $77 per barrel on Friday as trading remained volatile amid shifting flows through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed uncertainty over US-Iran negotiations on a longer-term peace agreement.
• Gold: Gold dropped below $4,200 an ounce on Friday, wiping out gains from earlier in the week as hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve outweighed the positive impact of the US-Iran peace agreement, which pushed oil prices lower and eased inflation concerns. 
• Silver: Silver fell below $65 an ounce on Friday and was set to lose about 5% for the week, as hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve outweighed the positive impact of the US-Iran peace agreement, which pushed oil prices lower and eased inflation concerns.
• Copper: Copper futures dropped below $6.3 per pound on Friday, giving back recent gains after Rio Tinto resumed exports of copper concentrate from its giant Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia following a brief protest-related disruption.

Sector watch

Energy: Expected to remain a leading contributor to TSX performance if crude oil prices maintain their recent strength.

Materials: Gold miners could continue benefiting from elevated bullion prices, while copper and diversified mining companies remain tied to industrial demand expectations.

Financials: Canadian banks remain sensitive to bond yield movements and evolving expectations surrounding economic growth and monetary policy.

Industrials: Infrastructure, transportation, and engineering companies could react to changes in commodity demand and broader economic sentiment.

Technology: Technology shares are expected to follow broader North American equity market trends and movements in Treasury yields.

Currency Movements

The Canadian dollar remains closely tied to commodity prices, particularly crude oil. Continued strength in energy markets could provide support for the loonie, although broader U.S. dollar movements remain an important factor.

Canadian government bond yields are expected to move in line with U.S. Treasury yields as investors continue to evaluate inflation trends and monetary policy expectations. Rate-sensitive sectors such as financials, utilities, and real estate will remain closely linked to yield movements.

What to watch today

• Early moves in crude oil, gold, and copper
• Geopolitical developments affecting energy markets
• Canadian and U.S. bond yield movements
• Inflation and economic data releases
• Canadian dollar performance against the U.S. dollar
• Corporate updates from major TSX-listed energy, mining, and financial companies

Outlook

TSX expected to open cautiously lower as lower commodity prices and economic data might not support sentiments, while investors remain attentive to interest-rate expectations.

Bottom line: Commodity trends, particularly in oil and gold, alongside evolving central bank expectations, are likely to remain the dominant drivers of TSX trading on June 19, with energy, materials, and financials expected to lead market performance.