Key Highlights

  • Among seven named partners, Microsoft ranks fifth in the S-1 chart data, with USD 44.9B of Anthropic compute commitment; simple arithmetic puts that at about 7.0% of the USD 637.0B named total.
  • Cloud marketplaces were the route for roughly 48% of what Anthropic earned in the first half of 2026, the S-1 chart data indicates; a private bank's CIO office places Azure, AWS and Google Cloud there.
  • Run-rate numbers should not be set side by side, argues the private bank's note: some sales via cloud partners enter Anthropic's figure at gross value, but only OpenAI's own share of partner Revenue enters its figure.
  • Early reports of USD 70 billion in run rate proved to be an investor estimate, a private bank's note says; at the end of September 2026, OpenAI itself cited nearer USD 50 billion.

What the Chart Data Shows

Charts based on Anthropic's S-1 filing with the SEC on October 26, 2026 set out compute commitments for each named partner. Broadcom leads at USD 161.2B, then SpaceXAI at USD 120.5B, Google Cloud at USD 114.5B and Amazon at USD 110.0B, ahead of Microsoft at USD 44.9B. USD 637.0B is the sum of named contracts, while the S-1's own aggregate is blank, say the chart notes. Using simple arithmetic on two published figures, the Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) commitment comes to just under one year of Anthropic's USD 46.2B Q2 2026 annualised run rate. A separate market commentary from October 26, 2026 gives a lower Microsoft number, USD 31 billion; we do not merge the two.

Azure and the Marketplace Role

Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure together carried almost half of first-half 2026 revenue, a private bank's CIO office says, describing Anthropic as being distributed largely through those platforms. Azure is therefore both a sales channel and a compute supplier for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). Sales, Marketing and partnerships costs, which include cloud-partner fees, rose 26.4 times year over year in the S-1 chart data, as revenue grew 14.0 times. Cloud partners also compete with their own models, the note observes, and about 20% of first-half revenue came from just two customers, so exposure is concentrated for Anthropic and its partners alike, in the note's view.

Net Versus Gross Run Rates

OpenAI counts only its share of partner revenue, whereas Anthropic counts the gross value of some sales through cloud partners, the same note explains. In its comparison table, OpenAI sits at about USD 50 billion at the end of September 2026 with a year-end target of USD 70 billion; Anthropic, as reported, is above USD 65 billion at the end of July 2026. Given the gross versus net gap, investors should hold off on deciding who is bigger until audited, like-for-like numbers arrive, according to the note. Sources also differ on commitment totals: the S-1 chart data names USD 637.0B, and the note cites at least USD 518 billion over a decade.

Where Things Stand

Within USD 637.0B of named contracts in the S-1 chart data, Anthropic's USD 44.9B commitment attached to Microsoft is a smaller piece, and Azure is one of three marketplaces behind about 48% of first-half 2026 revenue. A private bank's note suggests the question for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is how run rates are counted, gross at Anthropic and net at OpenAI, more than commitment size. Totals diverge across sources, USD 637.0B against at least USD 518 billion, and we report each alone. None of this is a recommendation.