Key Highlights

  • From ChatGPT's launch in November 2022 to September 2025, AI stocks supplied 75% of the S&P 500's returns, in JPMorgan's view as cited by a market commentator, a point relevant to index-weighted funds like SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY).
  • Funds like Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) would have to buy Anthropic once it joins the Nasdaq-100, which a market commentator says a listing of its size can do after 15 trading days under a fast entry rule that has been in force since May 2026.
  • Anthropic pays USD 1.25 billion monthly for cloud capacity through May 2029, a market commentator says, with either side free to end the deal on 90 days notice, and the arrangement is tied to shares of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX).
  • A market commentator describes the AI trade as a chain with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) near its head, and says the company grew from about USD 420 billion in November 2022 to close to USD 6 trillion by early October 2026.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): The 75% Share

JPMorgan's view, as cited in a piece dated October 26, 2026 from a market commentator, is that AI stocks supplied 75% of the S&P 500's returns between November 2022 when ChatGPT launched and September 2025. For the commentator this shows that the wider market depends heavily on one theme. Because index funds hold stocks by weight, the concentration question extends to the holders of vehicles that hold the S&P 500, such as SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY). Anthropic is valued at USD 2 trillion in the commentary's scenario, equal by its own estimate to 36 times 2026 revenue, or 22 times the Revenue rate at the end of 2026; those figures are the commentator's, not ours. Under the mechanism described, a listing creates a price every trading day, so pensions and other savers who own Index Funds absorb any repricing that follows. Past returns are what the 75% measures, not a forecast, and no S&P 500 or fund price moves appear in the commentary. Watch the final Anthropic prospectus, the listing date and any index inclusion next.

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): The 15 Day Rule

Since May 2026, says the commentator's October 26, 2026 piece, a fast entry rule has been in force. A listing that is large enough may enter the Nasdaq-100 after 15 trading days, about three weeks of trading before any market holidays on simple arithmetic. Anthropic's S-1, filed on October 26, 2026, proposes the Nasdaq ticker ANT, and as soon as November is when the commentary thinks the listing could come, at a target valuation of USD 2 trillion. What follows is mechanical. Holding the new member in proportion to its index weight is required of any fund that tracks the Nasdaq-100, Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) among them, and the commentary says the fund funds the purchase by selling a slice of each other holding. Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are named by the commentator as some of the index's biggest stocks, all five either inside the circle of AI companies or selling to it. Selling is left unquantified and no ETF price moves are given. The outcome turns on final listing size and on whether the index provider applies the rule.

SpaceX (SPCX): The Anthropic Contract

According to a commentary dated October 26, 2026, a market commentator says that Anthropic is paying USD 1.25 billion a month to SpaceX for cloud capacity until May 2029. Multiplied out, which is simple arithmetic on that published figure, the sum is USD 15 billion a year. The commentary points out that either side may end the agreement on 90 days notice, which is why the commentator excludes it from its base cash model; holders of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) should note that softer term. In a different set of numbers, the Anthropic S-1 chart data places SpaceXAI at USD 120.5B within named compute commitments totaling USD 637.0B, and the chart observes that the S-1, leaving its own aggregate blank, gives no sum. These come from separate sources, the S-1 chart data and the commentary, and are reported side by side, not reconciled. OpenAI's IPO timing was weighed on, a newspaper report cited by the commentary says, by the fall in SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares since its own listing, and OpenAI is now said to lean toward 2027. Share prices are not given in the commentary. Clarity on the numbers should come from the final Anthropic prospectus.

Nvidia (NVDA): The Value Climb

The AI trade, a market commentator argued on October 26, 2026, is a chain of companies in which each sells to the next, and Nvidia sits near the head. The commentary puts Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) at about USD 420 billion when ChatGPT launched in November 2022 and at close to USD 6 trillion in early October 2026. About twenty of the largest AI and chip stocks, he says, shed over USD 1 trillion of value in the week of October 15, on worries about how AI gets funded, which he calls a rehearsal. Price per token, the fee for each small chunk of text a model reads or writes, is what he argues the chain rests on. A fall in that price, with the labs' computing bills fixed in dollars, means the labs earn less and weakens the expected revenue behind chip and cloud share prices. His belief in the technology is stated, as is the fact that his scenarios rest on his own assumptions. In contrast, press reports of Anthropic's draft prospectus show first half 2026 revenue of USD 16.3 billion versus USD 1.1 billion a year earlier.

Where Things Stand

A commentator's account is that holders carry exposure to a single theme. For SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) holders, that means the 75% concentration view. Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) holders face the 15 trading day entry rule. A USD 1.25 billion monthly contract is what ties in SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX). The claim that price per token is the weak link in the chain is what ties in Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). Opinions and estimates from a bearish commentator are all these are, not forecasts, and none of it is advice. Next checks are the final Anthropic prospectus and the listing date.