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 Highlights

  • Consensus rating sits at “Moderate Buy,” based on a mix of analyst views.
  • CAD 22.34 is the average 12‑month price target, implying limited upside.
  • Earnings estimates for FY2027 have recently been revised downward by National Bank Financial.

First Quantum Minerals (TSE: FM) is currently rated Moderate Buy by the analyst community. The average 12‑month price target for FM is approximately CAD 22.34, based on brokerage forecasts from BMO Capital, Barclays, National Bankshares, Morgan Stanley, and TD Securities. Compared to the current trading price near CAD23.73, this indicates limited projected return over the coming year.

Recent Analyst Updates

  • Stifel Canada raised its Q3 2025 EPS forecast to CAD 0.15 (from a prior estimate of –CAD 0.04), while lifting Q4 to CAD 0.00. FY2026 earnings expectations were also revised upward to CAD 0.60 from earlier forecasts.
  • National Bank Financial lowered its EPS estimate for FY2027 from CAD 2.29 to CAD 2.01, reflecting more cautious long‑term earnings visibility.
  • TD Securities reduced its price target to CAD 24.00 and maintained a hold recommendation, implying roughly 1% upside potential.

The current Moderate Buy consensus on TSE: FM suggests cautious endorsement, rather than strong conviction. With a CAD22.34 target that sits marginally below recent trading levels, analysts signal that most potential for gain is likely modest. While recent upgrades to near‑term earnings forecasts provide some positive momentum, downward revisions to longer-term outlooks—alongside mixed ratings—reflect uncertainty ahead.