Key Highlights

  • Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) lost USD 72 million on a net basis in the third quarter of 2026, or USD 0.23 per diluted share, after earning USD 411 million a year earlier.
  • Adjusted EBITDA slid to USD 324 million from USD 806 million a year ago and USD 407 million in the prior quarter.
  • Phosphate posted a USD 194 million operating loss even though its DAP selling price climbed to USD 838 per tonne, up from USD 714.
  • Free Cash Flow was roughly breakeven, and management locked in a fourth-quarter sulfur price of USD 615 per long ton.

Phosphate Losses Overwhelm Higher DAP Pricing

Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) released third quarter numbers on November 3, 2026. Revenue hit USD 3.1 billion, yet an operating loss of USD 97 million led to a net loss of USD 72 million, after a profit of USD 411 million the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA sets aside USD 53 million of pre-tax notable items, chiefly environmental reserve work, Facility closures and restructuring, partly cushioned by gains on the Ma'aden stake and currency effects. Phosphate sales Volume shrank to 1.4 million tonnes from 1.6 million as curtailments caused by scarce affordable sulfur cut output, and that business's gross Margin was minus USD 105 per tonne. The adjusted loss per share came to USD 0.19, and the effective tax rate was 36.7%.

Input Costs, Idled Capacity and Potash Geology

Input costs drove the squeeze: sulfur averaged USD 715 a long ton and ammonia USD 619 a tonne, a pace that DAP pricing could not offset. Phosphate carried USD 77 million of idle, turnaround and unabsorbed fixed costs, up from USD 42 million, and further curtailments are scheduled at South Fort Meade and Miski Mayo. Potash delivered USD 189 million at the operating level from 2.1 million tonnes, but abnormal geology at Esterhazy reduced ore grades, which led management to lower full-year output expectations to 8.6 million tonnes. The Mosaic Fertilizantes unit lost USD 21 million, with volumes sliding to 1.9 million tonnes from 2.8 million. Management expects Phosphate and Fertilizantes Earnings to decline again in the fourth quarter.

Cash Flow, Refinancing and the Asset Sale Program

Operations produced USD 284 million of cash, helped by a drawdown in finished goods inventory. Capital spending is now expected at USD 1.2 billion for 2026, falling below USD 1 billion in 2027. Long-term Debt coming due through 2028 has been refinanced, the USD 2.5 billion revolver remains fully available, and a regular Dividend of USD 0.22 per share was paid. The strategic review is ongoing, with USD 67 million of land sold year to date and a sale process under way for the Araxa facility in Brazil. The fourth-quarter outlook sets potash at 2.3 to 2.6 million tonnes, priced USD 255 to USD 275 a tonne, while DAP is pegged at USD 820 to USD 840 a tonne.

Where Things Stand

Higher DAP prices were not enough: sulfur and ammonia rose faster, production was trimmed to fit affordable sulfur supply, and each tonne carried more fixed cost. Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) also absorbed USD 53 million of notable items. Management argues fertilizer Demand is strengthening and that a cheaper fourth quarter sulfur price should support cash flow, with most of the earnings benefit arriving in the first quarter of 2027. Because the fourth quarter is guided lower, the turnaround is not yet visible in reported numbers.