The TSX Index is expected to open on a negative note

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is expected to open on a weaker note, following softness in the healthcare and technology sectors during the previous trading session.

Despite the anticipated pullback, the technical outlook remains constructive, with the index continuing to trade comfortably above its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This key indicator reinforces the prevailing bullish trend and suggests that buyers remain firmly in control of the broader market direction. Momentum remains supportive, with price action holding above important support levels and underpinning the positive medium-term outlook. The index is now approaching a significant resistance zone near 35,150, which represents a crucial test of upside momentum. A decisive breakout above this level could reinforce bullish sentiment, attract fresh buying interest, and pave the way for a move toward the psychologically important 35,500 mark. Conversely, failure to clear this resistance area may trigger a period of short-term consolidation as investors assess the next market catalyst. Nevertheless, as long as the index remains above its key support levels, the broader technical outlook is expected to remain favourable, with the underlying uptrend firmly intact.

Global Macro Backdrop

Global markets are beginning the day on a mixed but generally stable footing.

• U.S. equities finished Monday's session with modest gains as investors balanced resilient economic data against uncertainty surrounding the timing of future Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• Market participants continue to monitor comments from Federal Reserve officials, who have maintained a cautious stance despite moderating inflation trends.
• European markets are trading higher in early activity, supported by easing energy concerns and improving investor confidence in industrial and financial sectors.
• Asian equities closed mixed overnight, with gains in Japanese stocks offset by more cautious sentiment in parts of China as investors await further policy support measures.

Government bond yields remain relatively contained, helping maintain support for risk assets despite lingering macroeconomic uncertainties.

Canadian Market Focus

The TSX enters Tuesday's session with several domestic themes in focus:

• Investors continue to evaluate the outlook for Bank of Canada policy amid signs of moderating inflation and stable economic activity.
• Commodity-sensitive sectors remain key drivers of overall index performance.
• Canadian pension and institutional flows continue to provide support to large-cap financial, energy, and materials names.
• Market participants are increasingly focused on economic indicators that could influence growth expectations during the second half of 2026.

While volatility has eased compared to earlier in the year, investors remain highly sensitive to any data that could alter the expected path of interest rates.

Commodity view — what will move the TSX

• Crude: Crude oil fell to around $73.4 per barrel on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session to its lowest level in nearly three months, as signs of progress in US–Iran peace talks eased supply concerns.
• Gold: Gold fell below $4,120 an ounce on Tuesday, giving back gains from the previous session as firm expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes outweighed optimism surrounding ongoing US-Iran peace negotiations
• Silver: Silver fell toward $63 an ounce on Tuesday, extending recent losses as firm expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes outweighed optimism surrounding ongoing US-Iran peace negotiations.
• Copper: Copper futures fell below $6.3 per pound on Tuesday, extending their decline as easing supply concerns combined with softer demand conditions.

What to watch today

• Crude oil and natural gas prices
• Gold and copper market movements
• Global bond yields
• Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada policy expectations
• Geopolitical developments affecting commodity markets
• Economic growth indicators from North America, Europe, and China

Market Outlook

The TSX Composite Index is expected to open with a mildly positive bias as firm commodity prices and stable global market conditions provide support. Energy and materials are likely to remain leadership sectors, while financials continue to offer stability to the broader index.

Although investor sentiment has improved, markets remain sensitive to inflation data, central-bank messaging, and geopolitical developments. Commodity trends are likely to remain the dominant driver of TSX performance in the near term.

Final Takeaway

Canadian equities enter the June 23 session cautiously with negative commodity markets, and  global sentiment. Energy producers, mining companies, and large financial institutions remain well positioned if current macro conditions persist. However, investors should continue monitoring inflation trends, interest-rate expectations, and geopolitical developments, as these factors are likely to determine the next major move for both the TSX Composite Index and global equity markets.