Highlights

  • Pembina’s Q3 2025 results reflected resilience, with adjusted EBITDA rising 1.5% YoY despite softer commodity pricing
  • Revenue dipped modestly in Q3 2025, while earnings declined due to cost pressures and non-recurring reinvestment-related items
  • High pipeline utilization and stable facilities performance continued to underpin cash flow visibility
  • The full contracting of Cedar LNG removed a key execution risk and secured long-dated, take-or-pay cash flows
  • Entering 2026, management guides to modest EBITDA growth and improving free cash flow beyond the current capex cycle

Pembina Pipeline Corporation (TSX:PPL) is a midstream energy company providing integrated transportation, processing, and storage services across Canada and North America, with significant exposure to the Bakken region.

The company delivered a resilient third quarter (Q3 2025) performance, underpinned by its contract-driven midstream model. While revenue edged down 2.9% YoY to CAD 1.79bn amid softer commodity pricing, the company demonstrated earnings stability with adjusted EBITDA rising 1.5% to CAD 1.03bn. Gross profit declined 11.9% YoY due to cost pressures, and earnings fell 25.7% YoY, largely driven by non-recurring items and strategic reinvestments.

Recent Business Update

In its December 15, 2025, pipeline update, Pembina reinforced a measured but constructive outlook heading into 2026, guiding for modest EBITDA growth anchored by its stable pipeline and facilities businesses. The company highlighted continued high utilization rates, progress on expansion projects, and improving cash flow visibility following the successful remarketing of Cedar LNG. Management also indicated that leverage is likely to peak in 2026 before trending lower, supporting balance sheet strength. Overall, the update underscores Pembina’s positioning as a low-risk, cash-visible midstream operator with a clear pathway to post-2026 free cash flow growth.

Company Outlook

The company enters 2026 with a higher operational visibility and a balanced growth profile, supported by its predominantly fee-based EBITDA mix. Management expects EBITDA to resume growth, driven by high pipeline utilization, long-term contracted assets, and new facilities coming online through the year. The full contracting of the Cedar LNG project removes a major execution overhang and secures long-dated, take-or-pay cash flows ahead of first gas expected in 2028. While marketing earnings are anticipated to normalize, growth in pipeline and facilities segments is expected to more than offset this.

Top Shareholders

The company’s top 10 shareholders collectively account for about 24.94% of the total outstanding shares. RBC Dominion Securities, Inc. is the largest shareholder with an estimated 5.95% stake, followed by The Vanguard Group, Inc. at roughly 4.50%.

Stock Information

The stock has declined by approximately 3.15% over the past week and 4.75% over the past month. It is currently trading below its 52-week high of CAD 59.20, while remaining above the 52-week low of CAD 48.35.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note 2: The reference date for all price data, currency, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is January 12, 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from EODHD/Others.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.