Commodities Show Mixed Performance Last Week as Aluminium Breaks 21-SMA

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Global commodities ended the week on a mixed and cautious note, marked by sharp corrections in precious metals and selective strength in base metals. Gold fell 5.40%, and silver slumped 22.50%, as aggressive profit-taking followed recent rallies amid rising policy uncertainty. In contrast, base metals exhibited uneven performance, with copper rising 0.14% and zinc surging 6.50%, while lead declined 1.11%, reflecting mixed industrial demand conditions. Overall sentiment remained guarded, with markets turning data-dependent ahead of the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls and key macroeconomic releases.

Natural gas recorded a moderate rebound, rising 15.02% as demand conditions showed tentative signs of stabilization. Crude oil advanced 2.92%, supported by geopolitical developments linked to Iran, though steady export flows from Venezuela continued to cap upside momentum. In agricultural markets, U.S. sugar fell 3.12%, reflecting renewed pressure after recent consolidation. Overall, commodity performance remained mixed, with strength concentrated in energy markets while agriculture lagged. Near-term trends are likely to remain data-driven, shaped by upcoming macroeconomic releases and evolving policy signals.

Global commodities ended the week on a mixed but cautiously negative note, with gains in energy offset by selective weakness in industrial metals. Natural gas and crude oil traded higher, supported by improving demand dynamics and favourable supply factors. Industrial metals showed a steady yet subdued tone amid persistent macro uncertainty. In contrast, agricultural markets weakened, with sugar slipping and reinforcing softness in the segment. Overall sentiment remained guarded, as markets stayed focused on upcoming economic data and clarity around the new Federal Reserve chair nomination.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Initial Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Payrolls.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss Aluminium March Future (LME: CMALH26) for the next 2-4-week duration:

 Aluminium March Future (LME: CMALH26)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: March aluminium futures are trading below a key horizontal resistance zone, indicating near-term softness and a sequence of lower lows that reflects easing momentum. The 21-period Simple Moving Average remains positioned above current prices, acting as immediate resistance. Recent bearish candlestick formations, together with an RSI at 54.12, point to cooling momentum. The current setup suggests a phase of consolidation or adjustment, with prices likely to remain range-bound until clearer directional cues emerge.

Now the next crucial support levels appear to be at USD 2930.00 and USD 2860.00, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

Source: REFINITIV; Analysis: Kalkine Group

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Aluminium March Future (LME: CMALH26) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Sell’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Sell’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers 

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Key Risk: Technical indicators are backward-looking and may generate false or lagged signals, particularly during volatile or changing market conditions. Price trends may also be disrupted by fundamental, macroeconomic, or company-specific developments not captured in charts. 

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 02^nd February 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.