Commodities Show Mixed Performance Last Week as U.S. Cocoa Finds a Base

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Global commodities ended the week on a mixed but relatively steady note, with precious metals under pressure while base metals edged lower. Gold declined 1.70% amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and rising Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, silver dropped 9.63%, copper fell 3.71%, lead slipped 0.58%, and zinc eased 0.71%, reflecting softer near-term industrial demand signals. Overall market sentiment remained cautious, with investors turning increasingly data-focused ahead of upcoming U.S. CPI figures and other key macroeconomic releases.

Energy markets showed strong upward momentum during the week, led by natural gas which surged 11.07% as supply concerns intensified and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed prices higher. Crude oil also rallied sharply, gaining 30.84%, supported by heightened geopolitical risks and tighter supply expectations. In agricultural commodities, U.S. sugar edged down 0.14%, reflecting relatively soft demand signals. Overall, commodity markets remained mixed, with energy prices rising sharply while other segments stayed relatively subdued, as investors continued to track geopolitical developments and key macroeconomic indicators.

Global commodities ended the week on a mixed but cautiously positive note, with energy markets retreating slightly after recent sharp gains while industrial metals displayed selective weakness. Natural gas and crude oil remained elevated, supported by supply-side dynamics and evolving geopolitical developments. Industrial metals stayed subdued amid persistent uncertainty around global growth. In agricultural markets, sugar moved higher, adding strength to the segment. Overall sentiment remained guarded and data-driven, as investors looked ahead to upcoming CPI and GDP releases while closely monitoring rising tensions in the Middle East.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include ADP Employment Change Weekly, CPI, Initial Jobless Claims, GDP and Core PCE Price Index.

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss US Cocoa May Future (ICE: CCK6) for the next 2-4-week duration:

US Cocoa May Future (ICE: CCK6)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: May Cocoa futures are attempting to stabilize after recent declines, with prices forming a base at lower levels and showing signs of short-term consolidation. The contract is trading below the 21-period Simple Moving Average, reflecting lingering weakness in the broader trend. Recent candlestick formations indicate tentative buying interest, hinting at a possible near-term rebound. Meanwhile, the RSI stands at 36.44, suggesting momentum is gradually recovering from oversold territory. Overall, the market appears to be in a consolidation phase, with prices likely to move within a narrow band until stronger directional momentum develops.

Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USD 3450.00 and USD 3600.00, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

Source: REFINITIV; Analysis: Kalkine Group

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, US Cocoa May Future (ICE: CCK6) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications

Disclaimers

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Key Risk: Technical indicators are backward-looking and may generate false or lagged signals, particularly during volatile or changing market conditions. Price trends may also be disrupted by fundamental, macroeconomic, or company-specific developments not captured in charts.

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock.

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock.

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices.

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 06^th March 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV.

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.