Soybean Oil Breaks Key Support as Commodities Show Mixed Trend Last Week

Global Commodity Market Wrap-Up

Global commodities ended the week on a cautiously firm note as markets reacted to U.S. GDP data and renewed tariff announcements. Gold gained 0.70%, and silver surged 5.65%, supported by safe-haven demand amid policy uncertainty. Base metals also edged higher, with copper up 0.58%, lead 0.18%, and zinc 1.35%, reflecting selective buying despite trade concerns. While growth data offered some stability, fresh tariff measures kept sentiment guarded, leaving commodities sensitive to further macroeconomic updates and global trade developments.

Energy markets reflected contrasting trends last week. Natural gas fell 3.63%, weighed down by strong production levels and easing short-term demand expectations, prompting fresh selling pressure. Meanwhile, crude oil climbed 5.85%, supported by tighter supply signals and positioning adjustments, even as ongoing Iran–U.S. discussions capped geopolitical risk premiums. In the agricultural segment, U.S. sugar rose 3.77%, driven by supply-side concerns and improved export demand. Overall, commodities traded with mixed direction, as markets remained highly sensitive to macro data, trade policy signals, and global supply developments.

Global commodities ended the week on a mixed but slightly constructive note, with energy markets showing divergence and select segments offering relative resilience. Crude oil found support amid evolving supply dynamics, while natural gas remained under pressure due to comfortable production trends and moderate demand expectations. Industrial metals traded cautiously, reflecting ongoing global growth uncertainty. Agricultural commodities displayed selective strength, helping balance broader weakness. Overall sentiment remained data-sensitive, with markets closely monitoring macroeconomic signals and policy developments for clearer directional cues.

The upcoming Micro and Macroeconomic events that may impact on market sentiments include Factory Orders m/m, CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims, PPI m/m and Chicago PMI    

Having understood the global commodities’ performance over the past week, taking cues from major global economic events, and based on technical analysis, noted below is the recommendation with generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss Soybean Oil May Future (CBOT: BOK26) for the next 2-4-week duration:

Soybean Oil May Future (CBOT: BOK26)

Price Action and Technical Indicator Analysis: May Soybean oil futures are currently trading above an important horizontal support zone after establishing a higher base, suggesting early signs of stabilization following the recent breakout move. Price action indicates an attempt to sustain gains as the contract revisits the prior breakout range. The 21-period Simple Moving Average continues to track below current prices, providing near-term dynamic support. Recent bullish candlestick formations reflect improving short-term structure, while the RSI at 73.05 highlights firm momentum conditions. However, with momentum approaching elevated territory, the market may enter a consolidation phase before establishing a clearer directional bias.

Now the next crucial resistance levels appear to be at USc 64.00 and USc 67.00, and prices may test these levels in the coming periods (2-4 weeks).

Source: REFINITIV; Analysis: Kalkine Group

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, Soybean Oil May Future (CBOT: BOK26) is looking technically well-placed for a ‘Buy’ rating. Investment decisions should be made depending on an individual’s appetite for downside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Technical summary of the ‘Buy’ recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include an update on employment, inflation, GDP, WASDE report, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact commodities’ prices:

Futures Contract Specifications 

Disclaimers 

Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.80:1.00), however, returns are generated within a 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Individuals with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. The investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and the fundamental performance of the commodities has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact commodity prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Note 1: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Note 2: Individuals can consider exiting from the commodity if the Target Price mentioned as per the Technical Analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 3: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50- period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the commodity. Commodity with high volumes is more liquid compared to the lesser ones. Liquidity in commodity helps in easier and faster execution of the order. 

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Key Risk: Technical indicators are backward-looking and may generate false or lagged signals, particularly during volatile or changing market conditions. Price trends may also be disrupted by fundamental, macroeconomic, or company-specific developments not captured in charts. 

Support: A level at which the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and a downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or Selling interest. Support 1 refers to the nearby support level for the stock and if the price breaches the level, then Support 2 may act as the crucial support level for the stock. 

Resistance: A level at which the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and an uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or Selling interest. Resistance 1 refers to the nearby resistance level for the stock and if the price surpasses the level, then Resistance 2 may act as the crucial resistance level for the stock. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: The risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. This report is based on ~80% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is 23^rd February 2026. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by individuals. Technical reports, in general, chart out metrics that may be assessed by individuals before any commodity evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the commodity; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per side.