Canadian Index Closes Flat

Index Update:  After opening below yesterday's close, today the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index traded lower early and gave further ground later to trade negative throughout much of the session before recovering late in the day to close at 33,237.52, up by 55.55 points (or 0.17%).

Macro Update:  As has Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, oil prices have gone through the roof, pushing inflation across all major economies and prompting major central banks globally to halt interest-rate lowering plans. Ahead of the ultimatum, Trump delivered his latest warning via his social media platform Truth Social stating that "a whole civilization will die" if Iran refuses to open up the seaway. Trump added that though he does not want that to happen, it probably will. On the data front, Canada's Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index tumbled to 49.7 in March from 56.6 in February, signaling broader economic contraction. While speaking of the gulf conflict, Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Canada expected all those involved in the war to follow international law, which forbids the targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructures.

Top Movers:  Among the individual stocks, International Petroleum Corporation (4.25%), Kelt Exploration Ltd (3.67%), Imperial Oil (2.26%), and Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd (6.75%), and Aris Mining Corporation (4.06%) were the prominent gainers.

Our Stance: Momentum remains moderate, with the 14-period RSI hovering around 56.84, suggesting room for further upside without entering overbought territory. However, the broader structure still points to a consolidation phase. Immediate support is seen near 32,800, and a sustained break below this level could weaken sentiment and push the index toward the 32,600 zone in the near term. 

Commodity Update:  Asian markets rallied on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, pushing the dollar to its lowest level in a month. The euro, yen, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar strengthened. Gold jumped 2.215% to USD 4,834.05, silver climbed 6.34% to USD 76.55, and copper rose 2.57% to USD 12,660.00. Brent crude tumbled 15.00% to USD 94.59 on easing supply fears.

Technical Update:

On Tuesday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index rose by 55.55 points (0.17%) to close at 33,237.55, reflecting a modest return of buying interest. From a technical standpoint, the index continues to trade above its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart, which is acting as dynamic support and maintaining a constructive near-term bias. Momentum remains moderate, with the 14-period RSI hovering around 56.84, suggesting room for further upside without entering overbought territory. However, the broader structure still points to a consolidation phase. Immediate support is seen near 32,800, and a sustained break below this level could weaken sentiment and push the index toward the 32,600 zone in the near term.