The TSX Index is expected to open on a weaker note

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is expected to open on a weaker note, following softness in the healthcare and technology sectors during the previous trading session.

Despite the anticipated pullback, the broader technical outlook remains constructive, with the index continuing to trade comfortably above its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This key trend indicator reinforces the prevailing bullish bias and suggests that buyers remain in control of the broader market direction. Momentum remains supportive, with price action holding above important support levels and underpinning the positive medium-term outlook. The index is now approaching a significant resistance zone near 35,150, which represents a critical test of upside momentum. A decisive breakout above this level could strengthen bullish sentiment, attract renewed buying interest, and pave the way for a move toward the psychologically important 35,500 mark.

Global Macro Backdrop

Global markets are trading with improved risk sentiment following developments that have helped calm investor concerns in recent sessions.

• U.S. equities closed higher on Tuesday as investors welcomed signs of easing geopolitical tensions and continued resilience in corporate earnings.
• Market participants remain focused on the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, with traders increasingly looking toward potential interest-rate reductions if inflation continues to moderate.
• European markets are posting gains in early trading, supported by improving investor confidence and strength in industrial and financial stocks.
• Asian equities ended mostly higher overnight, led by gains in technology and manufacturing shares as investors responded positively to economic stabilization efforts across key regional economies.

Meanwhile, government bond yields remain relatively stable, reducing pressure on equity valuations and supporting broader market sentiment.

Canadian Market Focus

The Canadian market enters Wednesday's session with several supportive factors in place:

• Commodity prices continue to provide a tailwind for Canada's resource-heavy equity market.
• Investors remain focused on the outlook for the Bank of Canada, particularly as inflation trends show signs of gradually normalizing.
• Large-cap financials continue to attract institutional interest amid expectations of stable credit conditions and resilient consumer activity.
• Market participants are also watching economic indicators for signs of sustained growth as Canada moves into the second half of 2026.

The TSX's significant weighting toward energy, materials, and financials continues to position the index favorably when commodity markets remain firm. 

Commodity view — what will move the TSX

• Crude: Crude oil fell below $72 a barrel on Wednesday, the lowest level since early March, as increasing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and progressing US-Iran peace talks boosted market confidence.
• Gold: Gold fell below $4,100 an ounce on Wednesday, sliding toward seven-month lows as expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy outweighed support from the interim US-Iran peace agreement, which helped ease inflation concerns. 
• Silver: Silver traded near $61 an ounce on Wednesday, hovering at six-month lows as expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy outweighed support from the interim US-Iran peace agreement, which helped ease inflation concerns.
• Copper: Copper futures traded around $6.1 per pound on Wednesday after tumbling more than 3% in the previous session, pressured by a stronger dollar amid hawkish expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Forex Watch

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is trading modestly firmer against the U.S. dollar.

• Strength in crude oil prices continues to support the loonie.
• Stable foreign-exchange conditions are helping reduce volatility for Canadian exporters.
• Currency markets remain sensitive to shifting expectations regarding Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada policy paths.

What to watch today

Investors will be closely watching:

• Crude oil and natural gas price movements
• Gold and copper market trends
• Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada policy expectations
• Global bond yield movements
• Geopolitical developments affecting energy markets
• Economic data releases from North America and major international economies

Market Outlook

The TSX Composite Index is expected to open with a mildly positive bias as firm commodity prices and stable global market conditions provide support. Energy and materials are likely to remain leadership sectors, while financials continue to offer stability to the broader index.

Although investor sentiment has improved, markets remain sensitive to inflation data, central-bank messaging, and geopolitical developments. Commodity trends are likely to remain the dominant driver of TSX performance in the near term.

Final Takeaway

Canadian equities head into the June 24 session with several factors, including weak oil prices, resilient gold markets, bond yields, and degrading global sentiment. The TSX's heavy exposure to energy, mining, and financial sectors positions it well if commodity strength persists. However, investors should remain attentive to monetary-policy developments, economic data releases, and geopolitical events, which are likely to shape market direction through the remainder of the week.