The TSX Index is expected to open on a positive note

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is expected to open on a positive note, supported by strength in the healthcare and industrials sectors during the previous trading session.

From a technical perspective, the broader outlook remains constructive, with the index continuing to trade comfortably above its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This key trend indicator reinforces the prevailing bullish trend and suggests buyers remain in control of the broader market direction. Momentum continues to favour the upside, with price action holding above important support levels and maintaining a positive medium-term bias. The index is now approaching a key resistance zone near 34,950, which represents an important test of bullish momentum. A decisive breakout above this level could strengthen positive sentiment, attract fresh buying interest, and potentially pave the way for a move toward the psychologically significant 35,200 level. However, if the index fails to break above the 34,950 resistance zone, it may enter a period of near-term consolidation before the next directional move emerges. Even so, as long as the index remains above its key support levels and the 21-day SMA, the broader technical outlook is expected to remain favourable.

Global Macro Backdrop

Global markets are ending the week with a measured but constructive tone.

• U.S. equities closed mixed on Thursday as investors balanced resilient economic indicators against lingering uncertainty over the timing of future Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
• Recent economic data continue to suggest that the U.S. economy is slowing gradually rather than sharply, reinforcing expectations of a data-dependent approach from policymakers.
• European markets are trading modestly higher in early dealings, supported by improving business confidence and easing concerns over inflation and energy costs.
• Asian equities finished mostly higher overnight, with gains in Japan and parts of Southeast Asia offsetting cautious trading in Chinese markets as investors awaited additional policy support to strengthen domestic demand.

Global government bond yields remain relatively stable, helping maintain investor confidence across equity markets.

Canadian Market Focus

Canadian investors will be watching several key themes heading into the weekend.

• Commodity prices continue to provide important support for the TSX, particularly through the energy and materials sectors.
• Investors remain focused on the outlook for the Bank of Canada, with incoming inflation and economic data expected to guide future policy decisions.
• Institutional investors continue rotating toward high-quality resource companies and dividend-paying financial stocks as they position portfolios for the second half of the year.
• Markets are also evaluating Canada's economic resilience amid a moderating global growth environment.

The TSX's heavy weighting in financials, energy, and mining continues to differentiate it from more technology-driven global equity benchmarks. 

Commodity view — what will move the TSX

• Crude: Crude oil fell nearly 4% toward $69 a barrel on Friday, the lowest since February 27, as shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated.
• Gold: Gold fell to around $4,000 an ounce on Friday and was on track to lose about 5% for the week as hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve outweighed support from the impact of US-Iran peace efforts.
• Silver: Silver dropped below $57 an ounce on Friday and was on track to lose about 14% for the week as hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve outweighed support from the impact of US-Iran peace efforts.
• Copper: Copper futures hovered below $6 per pound on Friday, remaining near their lowest levels in seven weeks as a stronger US dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes continued to weigh on sentiment.

Forex Watch

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is trading little changed against the U.S. dollar.

• Stable oil prices continue to provide support for the loonie.
• Currency markets remain focused on relative interest-rate expectations between Canada and the United States.
• Limited foreign-exchange volatility is helping reduce uncertainty for Canadian exporters.

What to watch today

Investors will be closely monitoring:

• Crude oil, natural gas, and refined fuel prices
• Gold and copper price movements
• U.S. Treasury yield trends
• Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada policy expectations
• Global economic growth indicators
• Geopolitical developments affecting commodity markets
• Portfolio positioning ahead of month-end and quarter-end

Market Outlook

The TSX Composite Index is expected to open with a modestly positive bias as firm commodity prices and relatively stable global markets continue to support investor sentiment. Energy and materials are likely to remain the primary leadership sectors, while financials should provide additional stability.

Although overall market conditions remain constructive, investors are expected to remain cautious ahead of additional economic data releases and central-bank commentary. Commodity prices, bond yields, and geopolitical headlines are likely to remain the dominant drivers of short-term market direction.

Final Takeaway

The TSX heads into the June 26 trading session supported by resilient commodity markets, stable bond yields, and cautiously optimistic global sentiment. Canada's resource-heavy index continues to benefit from firm oil and gold prices, while long-term demand for critical minerals and industrial metals remains a supportive theme. As the market approaches month-end and the second half of 2026, investors will continue to watch inflation trends, central-bank policy signals, and global economic developments for clues about the next phase of market leadership.