Canadian stocks closed lower on Friday

Index Update:  The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index opened a little above yesterday's close but gave away the gains made early in the session to trade firmly negative throughout the remaining session before settling at 32,541.93, down by 298.67 points (or 0.91%).

Macro Update:  Statistics Canada revealed that the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in February from 6.5% in the previous month (the lowest in sixteen months), above the expected 6.6% increase. Employment fell by 83,900 (or 0.4%) jobs in February following a decrease of 25,000 jobs in January, sharply missing forecasts of an increase of 10,000 jobs. The losses were concentrated in full-time positions, down 0.6% or 108,400. The Labor Force Participation Rate edged down to 64.9% in February from 65% in January. Canada's labor market update showing a sharp decline has raised concerns of weaker consumer demand and could dampen investor confidence in the economy. In the U.S., the Personal Consumption Expenditure data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed that the core price index rose by 0.4% in February. Compared to the previous year, the core PCE index rose by 3.1%. The Bank of Canada is slated to announce its lates interest rate decision next Wednesday. With the current rate at 2.25%, economists feel that the central bank is likely to hold rates at the same level due to the ongoing war in the Middle East, which has resulted in a surge in oil prices and consequent inflation.

Top Movers:  Among the individual stocks, Empire Company Limited (3.89%), Kelt Exploration Ltd (3.20%), Loblaw CO (2.23%), Colliers International Group Inc (2.52%), and Bird Construction (3.78%) were the prominent gainers.

Our Stance: Momentum indicators remain subdued, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 43.12, signalling mild negative momentum. On the downside, immediate support is seen around 32,500. A decisive break below this level could trigger additional consolidation toward the 32,200 zone in the near term. 

Commodity Update:  The U.S. dollar remained near a 10-month high on Monday as global markets turned cautious ahead of several key central bank meetings this week. Policymakers from the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are scheduled to decide on interest rates amid rising geopolitical tensions linked to the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, gold fell 1.10% to USD 5,006.60, silver dropped 2.27% to USD 79.49, copper eased 0.43%, while Brent crude rose 1.24% to USD 104.42.

Technical Update:

The S&P/TSX Composite Index edged lower on Thursday, closing at 32,840.60, as short-term profit-taking temporarily paused the recent upward momentum. Despite the pullback, the broader market structure still points to a phase of healthy consolidation rather than a definitive trend reversal. From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade below its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart, which is acting as a dynamic resistance level and reflects a cautious near-term outlook. Momentum indicators remain subdued, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 43.12, signalling mild negative momentum. On the downside, immediate support is seen around 32,500. A decisive break below this level could trigger additional consolidation toward the 32,200 zone in the near term.