Canadian Stocks Edged Higher as Optimism Rises

Index Update:  Canadian stocks inched higher on Friday, with expectations of an end to the gulf crisis increasing ahead of tomorrow's U.S.-Iran talks. After opening above yesterday's close, today the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite index traded positive throughout the session before settling at 33,695.76, up by 218.05 points (or 0.65%).

Macro Update:  Data released by Statistics Canada today revealed that the unemployment rate in Canada hovered around 6.7% in March, slightly below the expected 6.8%. The score is largely unchanged from the prior month. Employment in Canada edged up by 14,000 jobs (or 0.10%) in March, following a cumulative decline of 109,000 jobs (or 0.50%) over the first two months of this year. The forecasts indicated a nearly 15,000 rise. Despite the modest increase, this is the first job gain in 2026. The Bank of Canada's next interest rate announcement is on April 29. Given the ongoing gulf situation, money markets are not betting on a policy rate change in the upcoming meeting.

Top Movers:  Among the individual stocks, Celestica Inc (7.33%), Abrasilver Resource Corp (5.83%), Lundin Gold Inc (4.91%), 5N Plus Inc (4.17%), Parex Resources Inc (6.01%), and International Petroleum Corporation (4.24%) were the prominent gainers.

Our Stance: Momentum remains steady, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 61.10, indicating scope for further upside without entering overbought territory. However, the broader structure still points to a consolidation phase, as price action lacks a decisive breakout. Immediate support is seen near 33,500, and a sustained break below this level could weaken sentiment, potentially dragging the index toward the 33,200 zone in the near term.

Commodity Update:  U.S. dollar rose to its strongest level in one week during early Asian trade on Monday after peace talks between the United States and Iran collapsed and the U.S. Navy prepared to blockade Iranian ports. Gold declined 0.99% to USD 4,739.80, silver dropped 2.78% to USD 74.35, and copper slipped 0.66% to USD 12,771.00. Meanwhile, Brent crude jumped 7.36% to USD 102.20, moving back above USD 100.00 per barrel again.

Technical Update:

On Friday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index advanced 218.05 points, or 0.65%, to close at 33,695.76, signalling a return of buying interest following recent volatility. From a technical standpoint, the index continues to trade above its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is acting as dynamic support and helping to maintain a constructive near-term bias. Momentum remains steady, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 61.10, indicating scope for further upside without entering overbought territory. However, the broader structure still points to a consolidation phase, as price action lacks a decisive breakout. Immediate support is seen near 33,500, and a sustained break below this level could weaken sentiment, potentially dragging the index toward the 33,200 zone in the near term.