Canadian stocks edged lower on Thursday

Index Update:  After opening above yesterday's close, the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index turned lower to trade firmly negative and finally closed at 30,458.80, down by 178.32 points (or 0.58%).

Macro Update:  In Canada, the CFIB Barometer long-term index fell 3.9 points to 46.3 in October 2025. Confidence weakened across most sectors, led by construction, transportation, retail, and manufacturing. Data released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation revealed that housing starts in Canada jumped 14% to 279,234 units in September from 244,543 in August, surpassing market expectations of 255,000. Meanwhile, high-level trade talks between Canada and the U.S. are happening in Washington, D.C. The minister of Canada-U.S. Trade Dominic LeBlanc, Privy Council Clerk Michael Sabia, and other officials are focused in securing some sort of short-term trade relief for Canada's steel, aluminum and energy sectors. Data released by Statistics Canada on Wednesday revealed that Canada's month-on-month manufacturing sales fell 1.0% to $69.4 billion in August sparking guesses of a weak third quarter 2025 in the anvil.

Top Movers:  Among the individual stocks, Ngex Minerals Ltd (8.11%), Endeavour Silver Corp (6.67%), Lundin Gold Inc (6.64%), Quebecor Inc Cl B Sv (3.20%), and Maple Leaf Foods (1.92%) were the prominent gainers.

Our Stance: Momentum indicators also point to underlying strength, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding at 62.70. On the downside, immediate support is seen near 30,200 a crucial level for bulls to defend. A clear break below this zone could open the door to deeper retracements toward 29,900 and 29,800.

Commodity Update:  The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday amid rising global trade tensions and signs of economic softness, boosting expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar index is heading for its steepest weekly decline in nearly three months as the U.S. government shutdown delays key data releases. Gold rose 1.57% to USD 4,372.49 per ounce, silver edged up 0.02% to USD 53.29, copper slipped 0.62% to USD 10,571.75, and Brent crude eased 0.13% to USD 60.98 per barrel.

Technical Update: 

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 178.32 points (−0.58%) on Thursday, closing at 30,458.80. The decline reflected mild profit-taking, though the broader technical outlook remains positive. From a trend perspective, the index continues to trade well above its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which serves as dynamic support and reinforces the ongoing short-term uptrend. Sustained closes above this level suggest that buyers remain in control despite minor fluctuations. Momentum indicators also point to underlying strength, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding at 62.70. On the downside, immediate support is seen near 30,200 a crucial level for bulls to defend. A clear break below this zone could open the door to deeper retracements toward 29,900 and 29,800.