Canadian stocks showed a healthy move back to the upside

Index Update:  After trending lower over the past few sessions, Canadian stocks showed a strong move back to the upside during trading on Thursday.

The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index moved higher early in the session and climbed more firmly into positive territory as the day progressed. The index shot up 645.94 points or 1.9 percent to 33,964.33.

Macro Update:  Canadian GDP expanded by 0.2% in February 2026, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, driven by a surge in manufacturing (1.8%) and mining/oil and gas (0.4%). This, in line with analysts' expectations, suggests a 1.5% - 1.7% annualized growth for Q1 2026, with an advance estimate suggesting March was largely flat, indicating a resilient start to the year.

Top Movers:  BMO rose 1.9%, TD gained 2.3%, and Royal Bank of Canada added 2%. Gold prices advanced on a weaker dollar, lifting miners, with Agnico Eagle up 1.8% and Barrick rising 1.5%. Meanwhile, Shopify slipped 0.7% amid uncertainty surrounding Meta’s earnings in the US.

Our Stance: The momentum remains somewhat moderate, with the 14-period RSI hovering near 56.72, indicating only mild bullish strength rather than a strong upward push. This suggests that while the trend remains constructive, follow-through buying interest is still limited.

Commodity Update: The Japanese yen slipped slightly against the U.S. dollar on Friday but remained on track for its sharpest weekly gain in over two months, supported by intervention from Japanese authorities after touching near two-year lows. Gold edged up 0.02% to USD 4,630.40, silver advanced 0.84% to USD 74.64, and copper gained 0.47% to USD 13,075.60. Brent crude climbed 1.08% to USD 111.59 amid stalled Iran conflict negotiations and continued Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Technical Update:

On Thursday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index surged by 645.94 points, or 1.94%, to close at 33,964.33, reflecting strong buying activity during the session. From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade above its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is acting as a dynamic support level and helping to maintain a positive structural bias. However, momentum remains somewhat moderate, with the 14-period RSI hovering near 56.72, indicating only mild bullish strength rather than a strong upward push. This suggests that while the trend remains constructive, follow-through buying interest is still limited. Immediate support is seen near 33,800, and a sustained break below this level could weaken sentiment and open the door for a deeper pullback toward the 33,500 zone.