Index Update:  Canadian stocks tripped on Monday as investors weighed U.S. President Donald Trump's message indicating progress in ceasefire talks against the consolidation of more U.S. forces in the gulf and Iran showing war-readiness. The benchmark  S&P/TSX Composite  Index gained ground early in the session but later lost momentum and traded lower before settling at 31,934.94, down by 25.71 points (or 0.08%).

Macro Update:  On the monetary front, in an extended speech at Harvard University, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation expectations are grounded and well-anchored despite increasing oil and energy prices and hence viewed that the central bank need not hike interest rates.

Top Movers:  Among the individual stocks, Brp Inc (4.05%), Restaurant Brands International Inc (3.61%), Hydro One Limited (1.44%), Emera Incorporated (1.09%), and Fortis Inc (1.00%) were the prominent gainers.

Our Stance: Momentum indicators also point to mild weakness, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.36, indicating softening price strength. On the downside, immediate support lies near 31,800, with a break below this level potentially extending consolidation toward 31,500. 

Commodity Update:  The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday, reaching its highest level since May 2025 as investors continued to favour the currency amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. The stronger dollar was accompanied by gains in precious metals, with gold rising 0.79% to USD 4,593.50 and silver advancing 2.42% to USD 72.35, while copper edged 0.01% higher to USD 12,208.40. Brent crude, however, fell 1.09% to USD 106.24, capping a volatile month shaped by inflation and slower growth concerns.

Technical Update:

The S&P/TSX Composite Index slipped modestly on Monday, closing at 31,934.94 as profit-taking capped recent gains. Despite this decline, the broader technical outlook remains constructive, suggesting the current move reflects a phase of consolidation rather than a reversal of the prevailing trend. The index continues to trade below its 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is acting as an immediate resistance and limiting upside potential in the near term. Momentum indicators also point to mild weakness, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.36, indicating softening price strength. On the downside, immediate support lies near 31,800, with a break below this level potentially extending consolidation toward 31,500.

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