S&P/TSX Composite Index might Open in a Red

The S&P/TSX Composite index is expected to open on a negative note, following weakness in the healthcare and technology sectors during the previous session.

From a technical standpoint, the index is hovering near a key rising Trendline resistance around the 34,200 level, highlighting fragility in the near-term structure and limiting immediate upside potential. As long as this resistance remains unbroken, the overall bias is likely to stay cautious, with scope for continued consolidation or a mild corrective phase. Immediate support is seen near 33,700, and a sustained break below this level could further weaken sentiment and trigger additional selling pressure in the near term.

Global Market Sentiment

Global markets are trading mixed heading into the North American session. U.S. futures are slightly lower as investors take a more defensive stance following recent gains and ahead of key economic data releases. While Inflation has shown signs of easing, central banks continue to signal a cautious approach, reinforcing expectations that rates may remain elevated in the near term.

European equities are marginally lower, weighed by weak economic momentum and soft Manufacturing data. In Asia, markets closed mixed, with Chinese equities supported by policy stimulus expectations, while Japanese markets edged lower on profit-taking.

In Canada, focus remains on domestic economic resilience and the Bank of Canada’s policy outlook. Yield/">Bond Yield movements and Inflation expectations continue to drive sentiment across key sectors.

Commodity view — what will move the TSX

• Crude: WTI crude futures climbed above $94 per barrel on Thursday, rising for the fourth straight session as diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran showed little progress and reports indicated that the US intercepted at least three Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters.
• Gold: Gold fell toward $4,700 an ounce on Thursday, giving back gains from the previous session as markets continued to grapple with elevated uncertainty in the Middle East and the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has kept energy prices high and Inflation risks elevated.
• Silver: Silver fell to around $76 an ounce on Thursday, reversing gains from the previous session as markets continued to grapple with elevated uncertainty in the Middle East and the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has kept energy prices high and Inflation risks elevated.
• Copper: Copper futures slipped back toward $6 per pound on Thursday after reaching near two-month highs in the prior session, as stalled US-Iran peace efforts and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz kept energy prices elevated and Inflation risks in focus.

Sector watch

Energy: Likely to open under mild pressure due to softer oil prices, though longer-term fundamentals remain intact.

Materials: Gold miners may outperform on stable bullion prices, while base metal producers could see some weakness following softer copper.

Financials: Banks will closely track bond yields; stable yields may provide support, while Volatility could impact sentiment.

Real estate / REITs: Remain sensitive to rate expectations; elevated yields may continue to cap upside.

Technology & growth: Likely to follow U.S. tech cues and remain influenced by Treasury Yield movements. 

Currency Movements

The Canadian dollar is slightly weaker against the U.S. dollar, reflecting softer oil prices and a cautious risk environment. Currency direction remains closely tied to Commodity trends.

Bond yields are relatively stable, with markets awaiting further economic data for clearer direction. Yield movements will continue to influence sector rotation across equities. 

Technical snapshot

The TSX Composite remains range-bound, with immediate support near 33,700 and resistance around 34,200. A decisive move outside this range will likely require stronger macro catalysts or a shift in Commodity momentum.

What to watch today

• Early movement in Crude Oil, gold, and copper
• S. economic data and Yield/">Bond Yield reaction
• Central Bank commentary and Inflation signals
• Company-specific updates from major TSX constituents

Outlook

The TSX is likely to see a cautious end to the week on April 24, 2026, with Commodity price direction and Interest Rate expectations continuing to guide near-term market movements.