S&P/TSX Composite Index might Open on a Firm note

The S&P/TSX Composite index is expected to open on a negative note, despite strength in healthcare and basic materials during the previous session.

From a technical perspective, the index is hovering near a key rising Trendline resistance around 34,200, highlighting fragility in the near-term structure. As long as this level remains unbroken, the overall bias is likely to remain cautious, with scope for continued consolidation or a mild corrective phase. Immediate support is seen near 33,600, and a sustained break below this level could further weaken sentiment and trigger additional selling pressure in the near term.

Global Market Sentiment:  Global markets are showing a mixed but stabilizing tone. U.S. Equity futures are marginally higher as investors digest recent economic data and ongoing corporate Earnings. While Inflation remains a concern, recent data has shown signs of gradual moderation, keeping hopes alive for potential policy easing later in the year, though central banks continue to emphasize caution. European equities are trading slightly higher, supported by gains in energy and industrial stocks despite lingering growth concerns. In Asia, markets closed mixed, with Chinese equities supported by policy stimulus expectations, while Japanese markets saw modest gains. In Canada, attention remains on Inflation trends and economic resilience, with the Bank of Canada maintaining a data-dependent stance. Movements in bond yields continue to play a critical role in shaping Equity market direction

Commodity view — what will move the TSX

• Crude: WTI crude futures climbed above $94 per barrel on Thursday, rising for the fourth straight session as diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran showed little progress and reports indicated that the US intercepted at least three Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters.
• Gold: Gold fell toward $4,700 an ounce on Thursday, giving back gains from the previous session as markets continued to grapple with elevated uncertainty in the Middle East and the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has kept energy prices high and Inflation risks elevated.
• Silver: Silver fell to around $76 an ounce on Thursday, reversing gains from the previous session as markets continued to grapple with elevated uncertainty in the Middle East and the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has kept energy prices high and Inflation risks elevated.
• Copper: Copper futures slipped back toward $6 per pound on Thursday after reaching near two-month highs in the prior session, as stalled US-Iran peace efforts and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz kept energy prices elevated and Inflation risks in focus.

Sector watch

Energy: Could see a modest rebound if oil prices hold steady or move higher. Large-cap energy names will likely drive early gains.

Materials: Gold miners may remain supported by strong bullion prices, while base metal producers could benefit from improving copper sentiment.

Financials: Banks will watch bond yields closely; stable yields could support the sector, though macro uncertainty remains a Factor.

Real estate / REITs: Sensitive to rate expectations; elevated yields may limit upside.

Technology & growth: Likely to track U.S. tech sentiment and remain influenced by Yield/">Bond Yield movements. 

Currency Movements

The Canadian dollar is trading slightly stronger against the U.S. dollar, supported by stable oil prices and a softer USD tone. Currency movements remain closely tied to commodities.

Bond yields are relatively stable, as markets await further economic data for direction. Yield stability may help support broader Equity sentiment in the near term. 

Technical snapshot

The TSX Composite remains range-bound, with immediate support near 33,400 and resistance around 33,700. A decisive move outside this range will likely require stronger macro catalysts or a shift in Commodity momentum.

What to watch today

• Morning moves in Crude Oil, gold, and copper
• S. economic data releases and Earnings updates
• Yield/">Bond Yield movements and Central Bank commentary
• Company-specific developments across TSX heavyweights 

Outlook

Stabilizing Commodity prices and mixed macro signals may support a modestly positive start for the TSX on April 23, 2026, though investors remain cautious amid ongoing uncertainty around interest rates and global growth.