S&P/TSX Composite Index might open on a modestly positive note

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is expected to open on a modestly positive note, following the recent sell-off, though underlying sentiment remains cautious. In the previous session, gains were largely driven by strength in the consumer cyclicals and industrials sectors, but this provided only limited support to the broader market.

From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade below a key rising trendline resistance near the 33,400 level, underscoring persistent fragility in the near-term structure. As long as this barrier remains intact, the broader bias is likely to stay tilted to the downside, with the potential for continued consolidation or corrective movement. On the downside, immediate support is seen around 32,800. A sustained break below this level could further weaken sentiment and reinforce the cautious near-term outlook.

Global Macro Backdrop

Global markets are starting the week with a slightly defensive bias:

• U.S. equities ended the prior session mixed as investors weighed stronger-than-expected labor market data against concerns that inflation remains sticky, delaying the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• Federal Reserve officials continue to reinforce a “higher-for-longer” stance, emphasizing that policy easing will depend on clear and sustained inflation moderation.
• European markets are trading flat to slightly lower, as weak industrial output data offsets resilience in consumer and services sectors.
• Asian equities are mixed, with China showing modest gains on policy support expectations, while Japan and Korea remain pressured by currency volatility and global growth concerns.

Global bond yields remain elevated, keeping valuation pressure on equities while supporting defensive asset demand. 

Macro News Impacting the TSX

The TSX Composite is expected to open in a narrow range as investors await fresh domestic macro signals:

• Attention is turning toward upcoming Canadian inflation and labor market data, which could influence Bank of Canada policy expectations.
• Early April volatility has eased slightly, with positioning normalizing after quarter-end rebalancing flows.
• The index remains heavily driven by commodity-linked sectors, particularly energy and materials.

Commodity view — what to watch

• Crude oil: WTI crude oil futures were volatile at around $114 per barrel and remained near 2022 highs on Tuesday, as markets awaited US President Donald Trump’s looming deadline for Iran to secure a deal on the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has insisted that any accord must guarantee uninterrupted transit through the vital waterway, warning that failure to comply by 8 p.m. Eastern Time could trigger US strikes on Iranian infrastructure.
• Gold: Gold fluctuated around $4,650 per ounce on Tuesday, caught between cautious gains and losses as markets braced for US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran later today.
• Silver: Silver held steady at $72.7 per ounce on Tuesday, with markets in a "wait-and-see" mode ahead of Trump’s deadline for Iran. 
• Copper: Copper steadied around $5.6 per pound on Tuesday, holding within a sideways range for a fourth straight session as investors focused on President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to strike a deal or face attacks on civilian infrastructure. 

Sector highlights

• Energy: Expected to trade flat with slight downside bias due to softer oil tone.
• Materials: Mixed, with gold strength offsetting weaker base metals sentiment.
• Financials: Likely range-bound as bond yields stabilize and investors await economic data.
• Technology & Industrials: Expected to follow broader global risk sentiment with limited catalysts.

Forex watch

• The Canadian dollar (CAD) is slightly weaker against the U.S. dollar, reflecting firm U.S. macro data and stable oil prices.
• A softer CAD may offer partial support to Canadian exporters, particularly in the energy and materials sectors.

Bottom line:

The TSX Composite is expected to open bit positive with a cautious, range-bound tone as investors await clearer macro direction. Commodity stability—especially in gold—continues to provide underlying support, while energy and base metals remain sensitive to global demand expectations.

Overall sentiment remains balanced, with investors focused on inflation data and central bank policy signals as the primary drivers for near-term direction in Canadian equities.