S&P/TSX Composite Index Poised to Slide at Open

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is expected to open on a softer note, even as the previous session witnessed sector-specific gains, particularly in basic materials and utilities, which provided only limited support to the broader market. From a technical standpoint, the index continues to trade below a key rising trendline resistance near the 33,800 level, highlighting ongoing fragility in the near-term structure. As long as this resistance remains intact, the overall bias is likely to stay cautious, with the potential for further consolidation or a mild corrective phase. On the downside, immediate support is positioned around 33,400. A sustained breach below this level could weaken investor sentiment and may trigger additional selling pressure, reinforcing a softer short-term outlook for the index. 

Global Macro Backdrop

Global markets are starting the week with a modestly constructive tone:

• U.S. equities ended last week mixed, with investors balancing resilient economic data against concerns that inflation may remain elevated for longer than expected.
• Federal Reserve outlook remains cautious, with policymakers reiterating a data-dependent approach and signaling that rate cuts will depend on clearer inflation moderation.
• European markets are trading slightly higher, supported by easing energy price pressures and improving investor sentiment.
• Asian equities closed mostly higher, led by gains in Chinese markets amid expectations of further policy support and stimulus measures.

Global bond yields are relatively stable, suggesting a pause in recent volatility and providing a more supportive environment for equities. 

Macro News Impacting the TSX

The TSX Composite is expected to open with a mild upside bias:

• Investors are turning their attention to upcoming Canadian inflation and economic data, which will play a key role in shaping Bank of Canada policy expectations.
• The new trading week brings fresh positioning flows after last week’s cautious tone.
• Commodity-linked sectors continue to dominate index direction, particularly energy and materials.

Commodity view — what to watch

• Crude oil: WTI crude futures climbed as much as 9.3% to above $105 per barrel on Monday, recouping losses from last week after President Donald Trump announced a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of weekend negotiations with Iran.
• Gold: Gold dropped toward $4,700 an ounce on Monday, paring gains from last week as US plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz following failed weekend talks with Iran heightened concerns over a worsening global energy crisis.
• Silver: Silver dropped below $75 an ounce on Monday, paring gains from last week as US plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz following failed weekend talks with Iran heightened concerns over a worsening global energy crisis.
• Copper: Copper futures fell more than 1% to below $5.8 per pound on Monday, trimming last week’s gains after President Donald Trump announced plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz following the failure of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend, adding fresh uncertainty to metals markets. 

Sector highlights

• Energy: Expected to trade high to slightly higher oil tone.
• Materials: Low, with lower gold and silver strength along base metals.
• Financials: Likely range-bound ahead of inflation and growth data releases.
• Technology & Industrials: Expected to track global risk sentiment with limited catalysts. 

Forex watch

• The Canadian dollar (CAD) is trading relatively stable against the U.S. dollar, reflecting balanced commodity trends and steady global sentiment.
• Currency stability may reduce volatility in export-driven sectors at the start of the week.

Bottom line:

The TSX Composite is expected to begin the week with a cautiously optimistic tone, supported by stabilizing commodities and improved global sentiment. While upside momentum may remain limited, resilience in gold and oil provides a supportive base for Canadian equities.

Investor focus will remain on macroeconomic data and central bank signals, which are likely to dictate the next meaningful move in the TSX in the coming sessions.