S&P/TSX Composite Index would open on a higher note

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is expected to open on a positive note following sector-led gains in the previous session, particularly from energy and financials, although the broader market response remained limited.

From a technical standpoint, the index continues to trade below a key rising trendline resistance near the 33,500 level, highlighting ongoing fragility in the near-term structure. As long as this resistance remains unbroken, the overall bias is likely to stay cautious, with scope for continued consolidation or corrective movement. On the downside, immediate support is positioned around 32,900; a sustained breach below this level could further dampen sentiment and reinforce a weaker short-term outlook.

Global Macro Backdrop

Global markets are opening with a mildly positive but cautious tone:

• U.S. equities ended the previous session slightly higher as investors responded to softer-than-feared manufacturing data, easing some concerns about near-term growth but not yet shifting rate cut expectations.
• Federal Reserve officials continue to emphasize patience, reinforcing that interest rates will remain elevated until inflation shows consistent downward momentum.
• European markets are modestly higher, supported by stabilizing energy prices and improving sentiment in defensive sectors.
• Asian equities are mostly higher, led by technology and industrial names in China and Japan, as investors look for signs of more durable demand recovery.

Global bond yields are steady, suggesting a temporary pause in volatility after recent upward pressure.

Macro News Impacting the TSX

The TSX Composite is expected to open slightly higher, supported by stabilizing commodities:

• Investors are positioning ahead of upcoming Canadian inflation and labor market data, which will be key for Bank of Canada policy expectations.
• Early April flows are becoming more balanced as quarter-end rebalancing effects fade.
• Resource-heavy index composition continues to tie TSX performance closely to commodity direction, especially energy and metals.

Commodity view — what to watch

• Crude oil: WTI crude futures plunged more than 15% to below $95 per barrel on Wednesday after President Donald Trump delayed his threat to attack Iranian civilian infrastructure by two weeks in what he described as a “double-sided ceasefire,” contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. 
• Gold: Gold prices rose nearly 2% to $4,790 per ounce on Wednesday, hitting their highest level since March 19, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, reducing fears of energy-driven inflation.
• Silver: Silver prices soared over 5% to $76.70 per ounce on Wednesday, reaching their highest level since March 18, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.
• Copper: Copper futures jumped nearly 3% toward $5.7 per pound on Wednesday, hitting a three-week high after Iran agreed to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of a two-week ceasefire with the US and Israel, easing demand concerns. 

Sector highlights

• Energy: Expected to trade at downside bias due to softer oil tone.
• Materials: Supported by strong gold performance and stabilizing base metals.
• Financials: Likely to trade in a tight range as investors await macro data.
• Technology & Industrials: Expected to follow global risk sentiment with limited near-term catalysts.

Forex watch

• The Canadian dollar (CAD) is trading slightly stronger against the U.S. dollar, supported by stable commodities and reduced global risk aversion.
• A firmer CAD may slightly weigh on export-driven sectors, though commodity strength helps offset margin pressure for producers.

Bottom line:

The TSX Composite is expected to open with a cautiously positive tone as commodity stability and improving global sentiment provide support. While upside remains measured, gold strength and steady oil prices continue to anchor Canadian equity sentiment.

Near-term direction will likely depend on incoming inflation data and central bank commentary, which remain the primary drivers of volatility and sector leadership across the TSX.