Ottawa's decision to extend its Tariff relief program, announced November 9, 2026, keeps a cushion in place for Canadian importers. The program is now set to run to June 30, 2028, which is far beyond any deadline in the current Canada–U.S. talks. It suggests that Ottawa is planning for retaliatory tariffs and U.S. duties to stay for some time, even as both governments say a deal is closer. Over the same week, Canada also deepened its economic ties with China, and Prime Minister Mark Carney said there are "still some tough issues to resolve" with Washington.

What Changed in Canada's Tariff Relief Program

On November 9, the federal government is extending its relief program for firms that Import U.S. goods hit by Canadian counter-tariffs, and changing which goods qualify. Relief now runs to June 30, 2028. Relief for certain U.S.-made trailers ends December 1, 2026. Specified aluminum wire, extrusions and paperboard will face Canadian tariffs again from February 1, 2027.

The same report cited federal figures showing that Canada assessed about $10 billion in tariffs on U.S. goods from March 2025 to October 26, 2026. Roughly $6.3 billion of that was relieved or omitted, leaving about $3.7 billion in net tariff revenue. In other words, close to two-thirds of the counter-tariffs assessed were later returned or waived. Relief programs such as this are the main way Ottawa softens the cost of retaliation for Canadian manufacturers and food processors that rely on U.S. inputs.

Where U.S. Tariffs on Canada Stand Now

The extension comes while several layers of U.S. duties remain in effect. Under three proclamations signed July 20, 2026, the U.S. imposed an additional 50% tariff under section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 on a range of Canadian goods. These included dairy products, alcoholic beverages and a broad list of other items such as lumber, paper, textiles, plastics, machinery and furniture. The duties took effect August 22 after talks broke down. Goods qualifying under CUSMA are not exempt from the section 338 duty. Energy, potash, fish, critical minerals and goods already covered by section 232 tariffs, including steel, aluminum, copper and vehicles, are excluded from it.

The section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and wood products continue to apply separately. Lumber, steel, aluminum and automobiles remain the main sources of tension. The auto sector has felt the impact directly. The Associated Press reported on November 10 that Stellantis agreed to sell its idled Brampton, Ontario, assembly plant to armoured vehicle maker Roshel after moving planned Jeep Compass production to Illinois.

How the Negotiations Have Shifted

Carney called off formal talks in August, citing U.S. demands that touched on culture, French-language protections and Canada's ability to negotiate trade deals with other countries. On November 3, he said "more intense" negotiations had begun after a call with President Donald Trump. He added that the U.S. was "asking less" and "offering more," though "we're not quite there." Trump said the same day that a deal with Canada would come "very soon."

Speaking in Montreal on November 10, Carney said Washington had backed away from those sovereignty-related demands but that tough issues remain. He also said the U.S. executive branch, not Congress, would decide trade agreements "over the next two or three years." The remark followed Democratic gains in the U.S. midterm elections and moves by Democrats, including Senator Ron Wyden, to repeal tariffs on Canada. The AP noted that Trump could veto any such legislation.

Why the China Track Matters

Canada is also working to diversify its trade. On November 4, Beijing and Ottawa had agreed to extend a market access arrangement to late 2028. China will keep lower tariffs on canola meal, peas, lobster and crab, and Canada will continue to admit certain Chinese steel and aluminum without additional surtaxes. On November 9 in Vancouver, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng signed three further agreements on economic policy dialogue, regulatory cooperation and a Central Bank working group.

Federal figures cited in that report show canola meal exports to China rose to $277 million from $104 million under the earlier arrangement, while pea exports rose to $245 million from $76 million. Canadian canola seed still faces a 14.9% Chinese tariff, and canola oil remains subject to a 100% duty. Carney is expected to meet President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Shenzhen next week.

What It Means for Canadian Businesses and TSX Sectors

Importers that rely on U.S. inputs now have a longer planning horizon, though some will lose relief on trailers and certain aluminum and paper products. Exporters of dairy, spirits, beer, wine, lumber and manufactured goods covered by the section 338 duty still face some of the highest U.S. tariffs Canada has seen. Steel, aluminum and auto producers remain exposed to section 232 tariffs. Prairie agriculture benefits from more predictable access to China.

For TSX-listed sectors, the clearest effects are on forestry, metals, autos and auto parts, and consumer staples with U.S. sales. Energy, potash and critical minerals remain largely outside the section 338 duty. The main risks are a lasting stalemate, renewed escalation if talks break down again, and the chance that closer ties with China become a point of friction with Washington. Federal officials have described progress as slow, with "still a way to go."

Conclusion

The extension of tariff relief to mid-2028 suggests Ottawa expects counter-tariffs and U.S. duties to last, even as both sides talk up a possible deal. U.S. section 338 and section 232 tariffs still cover a large share of non-energy exports. Meanwhile, Canada is deepening its trade and financial links with China. A deal could still come soon, but these moves suggest Canada is preparing for a long period of trade friction.