Key Highlights

  • The Equity research arm of a large US bank raised its third-quarter comparable sales outlook for Home Depot (NYSE:HD) to 2.5% in a November 9, 2026 note, against a 1.5% consensus.
  • The unit's per-share Earnings estimate for Home Depot of USD 4.05 sits above the USD 3.84 consensus ahead of a report on November 17 that kicks off the large-format retail reporting window.
  • Same note: Lowe's comparable sales at 1.3% versus 0.1% consensus, and Target at 4.2% versus 3.3%, with earnings estimates above forecasts for both chains.
  • Walmart stands apart: its US comparable sales are seen at 2.7%, a touch under the 2.9% consensus, while per-share earnings of USD 0.65 are set against USD 0.64.

Where the Preview Sees Each Retailer Heading

The preview places Home Depot (NYSE:HD) at the forefront of an upbeat outlook for large US retailers. A 2.5% comparable sales forecast is one full point above the 1.5% consensus, and projected earnings of USD 4.05 per share are 21 cents over the USD 3.84 consensus. Lowe's follows the same direction: comparable sales of 1.3% compared with 0.1% expected, plus earnings of USD 2.97 a share versus USD 2.89. Target's projected comparable sales growth is 4.2%, up from a 3.3% consensus, and per-share earnings of USD 2.17 compare with USD 2.06. Walmart's projections sit near consensus, with US comparable sales at 2.7% against 2.9% expected, and earnings at USD 0.65 a share compared with USD 0.64. The overall picture implies the research unit expects Demand for home improvement and discretionary goods to firm up, rather than spending concentrated in defensive grocery categories, which would mark a departure from the pattern of recent years.

Why Home Improvement Demand Matters

Home improvement purchases have been suppressed by elevated Mortgage rates that keep existing home sales sluggish. Fewer moves translate into fewer kitchen renovations, flooring jobs and large purchases. Such a comparable sales beat for Home Depot (NYSE:HD) would indicate pros and do-it-yourself customers are buying again despite pricier loans. It would also back the notion that the US shopper held steady through the third quarter even as tariffs nudged some prices upward. Lowe's has been narrowing its comparable sales gap with Home Depot, and these estimates suggest both chains improved. Target's figures carry extra weight for another reason. The retailer has battled soft discretionary sales and inventory problems, so a 4.2% comparable sales result would represent a clear turnaround. Walmart, which reports later in November, remains the steady share taker, so an in-line outcome there would not weaken the wider argument.

Caveats, Macro Dates and Margin Pressures

This preview reflects a single research unit's opinion, and actual numbers may diverge. Weather, Tariff expenses and promotions can all swing a quarter. For home improvement, a dip in professional orders or weaker big-ticket buying would limit upside, while higher freight and Import costs could squeeze margins even if sales surprise. For Target, a robust Top Line would need stronger margins to shift sentiment. Guidance may matter as much as the quarterly figures, since the fourth quarter covers the holiday season and a stretch of elevated Inflation readings. October inflation figures arriving November 10, plus the Fed's December 9 meeting outcome, with traders weighing a possible increase in rates, could also move mortgage rates and housing-linked shares. Investors should measure reported comparable sales against both the 1.5% Home Depot consensus and the 2.5% preview estimate.

Where Things Stand

A bank's November 9, 2026 note sees Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's and Target clearing third-quarter comparable sales and profit estimates, with Home Depot set at 2.5% comps against a 1.5% consensus and USD 4.05 per share versus USD 3.84. Walmart looks close to consensus. The season kicks off with Home Depot reporting on November 17. A beat would point to firmer home improvement demand, though guidance, margins and rate expectations will shape the market reaction.