Canadian stocks edged higher on Thursday

index Update:

Canadian stocks moved modestly higher on Thursday as optimism grew over potential Chinese involvement in resolving the Strait of Hormuz crisis ahead of a U.S.-China summit, although the continued blockage of the strait kept pressure on global oil and energy markets.

After opening a little above yesterday's close, today the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index gave ground initially but regained momentum to trade positive throughout the rest of the session before settling at 34,268.27, up by 226.84 points (or 0.67%).

Macro Update:

Trump is now in China with a team of high-level Business leaders to expand U.S.-China trade ties.

A White House readout on the meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that both leaders agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must be free for all nations.

Aside from the Iran war, the prevailing uncertainty over the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement for Free Trade, which is up for renewal, is increasing investors' concerns in Canada.

Meanwhile, Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters (CME), the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) of the U.S., and the Confederation of Industrial Chambers of Mexico (CONCAMIN) are joining at a conference in Washington to send a message for preserving the CUSMA pact.

Data from Statistics Canada today revealed that Canada's Wholesale Trade rose 1.90% month over month to C$89.0 billion in March, above forecasts of a 1.30% increase.

Top Movers:

Among the individual stocks, Celestica Inc (2.70%), Constellation Software Inc (2.66%), Shopify Inc (2.28%), Brookfield Corporation (5.41%), and Quebecor Inc (7.80%) were the prominent gainers.

Our Stance:

Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.65, signaling steady bullish momentum while leaving room for further upside. Immediate support is seen near the 34,100 level; a sustained break below this zone could trigger an extended consolidation phase and potentially pull the index toward 33,780 in the near term. On the upside, a decisive move above the 34,400 resistance level would strengthen bullish sentiment and could open the door for further gains toward 34,600.

Commodity Update:  

The U.S. dollar strengthened on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. Inflation and retail sales data increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer. Investor focus also remained on President Donald Trump’s China visit, where discussions around trade, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical tensions involving Iran stayed in focus. Gold declined 1.26% to USD 4,625.90, silver dropped 3.89% to USD 82.01, and copper fell 1.40% to USD 13,783.50. Brent Crude rose 0.57% to USD 106.32 amid ongoing concerns over Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions.

Technical Update:

The S&P/TSX Composite Index advanced 226.84 points, or 0.67%, on Thursday to close at 34,268.27. From a technical standpoint, the index continues to trade above its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is acting as a reliable dynamic support level and reinforcing the broader positive trend structure. Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.65, signaling steady bullish momentum while leaving room for further upside. Immediate support is seen near the 34,100 level; a sustained break below this zone could trigger an extended consolidation phase and potentially pull the index toward 33,780 in the near term. On the upside, a decisive move above the 34,400 resistance level would strengthen bullish sentiment and could open the door for further gains toward 34,600.